Lead futures (₹203/kg) has been appreciating steadily since the beginning of this year. Importantly, it broke out of the range of ₹173-196 last week. This is a significant move as this price band had shackled lead futures since July 2021.
The breakout of ₹196 and the subsequent monthly close at ₹199.40 for April has given lead futures a marked shift in the trend.
The prevailing price action of May futures shows no sign of a bearish reversal. Although it marked a high of ₹205.50 on May 14 and has since seen some softening in price, the bull trend appears intact.
The nearest support is ₹201, where the 21-day moving average lies. Subsequent support levels are at ₹198 and ₹196. As long as these levels stay valid, the probability of further rally is high. We expect lead futures to touch ₹212 in the near-term.
In case the contract faces a decline below ₹196, which is less likely to occur before lead futures rising to ₹212, the outlook can turn weak, possibly dragging the price lower to ₹190 and ₹186.
Trade strategy
Go long on lead futures now at ₹203. Target and stop-loss can be ₹212 and ₹199 respectively.
Published on May 21, 2026
