This week, modelling published by the Zurich Office for Economic Affairs, shows a significant shortage of workers emerging in the canton by 2050.
Within 25 years, Zurich will have tens of thousands of workers less than it needs, despite a growing population. The modelling shows that as more people retire from the workforce than enter it, a gap will open up. According to the authors, immigration will not solve the problem because the shift will be too fast and too significant.
In 60 years, birth rates in the canton have dropped from 2.7 to 1.3. By the 2040s, those born today will be entering the workforce in that decade and there will not be enough of them. The gap between those who leave the labour market and those who enter it is projected to be at its greatest during this decade. At this point in the future there will be 18% more people 65 and over than 20 and under. Along with lower birth rates, higher life expectancy is also driving this trend.
In addition, the number of people required to work in healthcare and other care will rise, creating additional demand for workers as the population ages.
In 2023, 63% of the population in the canton of Zurich was working. This figure is expected to fall to 59% by 2050. Zurich is in better shape than many parts of Switzerland. Across the nation, the working population is expected to fall from 61% to 55% by 2050.
The lack of “home grown” workers can be somewhat compensated for with immigration, according to the experts. But the rate of immigration would need to double from the average over the last 10 years, which is a level that would be difficult to achieve, especially given that the neighbouring nations that supply most immigrant workers are ageing faster than Switzerland.
An author of the report said that it is important that the Canton of Zurich remains an attractive business location in the future. But immigration will not solve the demographic problem. Unlocking domestic labour potential must also be promoted. Encouraging more women and older workers into the workforce will be needed. We also need to think about working longer, she said. Increasing productivity is another approach, for example through the use of new technologies.
More on this:
Zurich Office for Economic Affairs article (in German)
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