Without immigration, Switzerland would see a profound shift in the age structure of its population.
Keystone / Urs Flueeler
Immigration not only boosts Switzerland’s population but also slows its ageing. Without it, the workforce would shrink while the number of pensioners would rise, putting direct pressure on the state pension system and health insurance premiums.
Switzerland’s population is growing rapidly – too rapidly, according to the right-wing Swiss People’s Party. With an initiative to curb immigration, the main driver of population growth for decades, the party wants to cap the population at 10 million. The proposal, which will go before voters on June 14, promises to protect infrastructure – from housing to transport – as well as living standards.
But what would Switzerland look like without immigration? Beyond the sheer size of the population, the country’s age structure would change dramatically. Without its 2.5 million foreign residents, Switzerland would be far older, according to data from the Federal Statistical OfficeExternal link (FSO).
Today, the average age of Swiss men and women is 44.5 years; among foreign residents, it is just 37.5.
Three out of four non-Swiss are of working age
The contrast is even sharper when the population is divided into young people (0–19), working-age adults (20–64) and the elderly.
Among Swiss nationals, 56% are of working age. Among foreign residents, the figure rises to nearly 72%. By contrast, almost 24% of Swiss citizens have reached retirement age, compared with around 8% of foreigners.
Non-Swiss residents are especially concentrated in the 30–49 age groups, where they account for roughly 40% of the population. Among those aged over 80, their share falls to around 10%.
Pressure on health insurance and pensions
A faster ageing population would have several direct consequences, one of which can be measured relatively easily: healthcare costs.
On average, a 38-year-old pays CHF5,076 ($6,427) a year in health insurance premiums while generating CHF2,937 in costs for compulsory basic insuranceExternal link, leaving a positive balance of CHF2,139.
At 73, a person pays the same premiums but generates CHF9,652 in costs, resulting in a negative balance of CHF5,476.
In other words, accelerated ageing would place a heavier burden on the financing of basic health insurance.
The same logic applies to the old-age and survivors’ insurance (OASI), the state pension system also known as AHV/AVS: pensions are funded by contributions from those in employment. A higher share of retirees and fewer workers would increase pressure on the system.
Translated with the support of AI/amva/sb
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