In response, Zelenskiy said he’d offered to compensate Fico for the additional costs that Slovakia would accrue should Russian gas transit end. He said he was also ready to allow shipments of non-Russian fuel if a request was to be made by the European Commission — an offer which he claimed the Slovak leader rejected.
The spat escalated further late on Friday, when Fico said in a video posted on Facebook that if the flows stop, he’ll assess potential reciprocal measures, including halting power supplies that Ukraine needs during its network outages. The end of transit of Russian gas would cost the EU an additional 120 billion euros ($125 billion) in energy costs over the next two years, according to Fico.
“Stopping the transit of Russian natural gas through Ukraine is not just a hollow political gesture. It’s an extremely costly move, one that we, in the European Union, will pay for,” Fico said.
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Ukraine’s Energy Minister German Galushchenko hit back on Saturday, telling a local television station that he alerted the EU and the region’s energy community that a halt in power supply will violate European regulations. He added that Ukraine has mechanisms to substitute Slovak electricity with more imports from other partners.
With the deadline approaching, alternative solutions are being considered. SPP has been in talks with Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company about sourcing Azeri gas, according to people with knowledge of the talks. That may require a swap between Gazprom and Socar, in which the Azeri company would purchase corresponding volumes from Russia to deliver to European buyers.
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, at a European Union summit in Budapest, Hungary, on Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. Prime Minister Viktor Orban kicked off Hungary’s six-month EU presidency in July with uncoordinated diplomatic freelancing, which included a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has also proposed moving the location of Russian gas sales to the physical border between Russia and Ukraine, which would transfer gas ownership to European buyers and oblige Ukraine to ensure transit under its free trade agreement with the EU, according to people with knowledge of the issue.
Putin acknowledged various proposals on Thursday that would allow Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey or Azerbaijan to take control of the gas shipped through Ukraine. He noted that any such arrangement would be difficult to enact because of Gazprom’s long-term contracts.
Before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was the EU’s top gas supplier, providing more than 40% of the bloc’s imports. Following the outbreak of the war and a cut in supplies, Europe accelerated its shift away from Russian energy. Last year, Russian gas made up around 8% of EU imports.
Permitting further Russian gas to transit through Ukraine would undermine the message that the EU can no longer do business as usual with Putin’s Russia, said Benjamin L. Schmitt, senior fellow at the CEPA think-tank and the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy.
“The stakes couldn’t be higher,” Schmitt said in a research note. “Continuing Russian gas transit in any form — whether through an overt contract extension with Kremlin-controlled Gazprom, or under any other name, but still de facto Russian — would be dangerous for Ukraine.”
