There is growing economic unease on Wall Street in response to Donald Trump’s recent implementation of widespread tariffs, prompting leading banks to issue warnings of a possible recession. According to a report from Bloomberg, JPMorgan’s Chief Economist Bruce Kasman has estimated a 60% likelihood of a global recession in 2025, a significant increase from the previous forecast of 40%.
Kasman emphasized the potential amplification of the tariff effects through retaliatory measures, decreased US business sentiment, and disruptions in the supply chain, as outlined in his publication titled “There Will Be Blood.”
Goldman Sachs has also expressed similar apprehensions, raising its recession probability from 20% to 35% within the next year. Additionally, the firm has revised its 2025 GDP projection to a mere 1% growth and anticipates an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. “The escalation in our recession likelihood reflects a marked decline in both consumer and business confidence in the economic outlook over the past month,” stated Goldman’s report.
