In Florida’s governor race, the Republican messaging contrasts the “Florida dream” of economic growth that Republicans say they delivered versus what they say is the hardship and depravity of Democratic-run states like Illinois, California and New York. Florida’s population is booming, and many of the new arrivals are conservatives who lived in – and grew tired of – more liberal states in the north and west. But even this pitch often came with a nod to the current economic difficulties.
“For the past 26 years, we have been living in a Florida dream, and a lot of people don’t realise the amount of work that has been done in this state,” Avila said in Kissimmee last week.
According to James, from the Republican-aligned polling firm, the key for conservative candidates is to take subjects on which they are relatively strong, like crime, taxes and immigration, and link them to affordability issues that Americans say they care about most.
“Republicans are certainly looking to tell those independents that you might not be happy with everything, but we have delivered on these issues,” he said.
With Republicans pouring money into advertising in battleground states, often outpacing their Democratic opponents by significant margins, there’s still the possibility that the situation will improve in the final month of the midterm campaign.
That hasn’t stopped the Republican faithful from being nervous about their side’s chances, though – and what some see as a lack of enthusiasm on the right.
“Campaigns are won at the end by momentum,” said Joseph Robinson, an engineer who attended the Avila fish-market event in Tampa. “But the momentum has been slow. It’s not really like, ‘Hey, I’m going to go run out there and vote right now.'”
Trump, for his part, is inevitably upbeat. Last month, he travelled to Tennessee for a college football game, where the crowd of more than 100,000 greeted him with cheers. The next day, it was a golf tournament in Illinois and another welcoming crowd. This weekend, he’s going to another football game – in Alabama.
He is hitting the campaign trail, but frequently in states that mostly return Republican candidates – Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska.
