The Asian Development Bank’s Asian Development Outlook projects ASEAN economies to grow by 4.7% in 2024, exceeding the earlier forecast of 4.5%.
Key takeaways
- ASEAN economies are projected to grow by 4.7% in 2024, surpassing earlier estimates, driven by manufacturing exports and large-scale government investments.
- Thailand lags behind regional peers with a forecasted GDP growth of only 2.6% in 2024, compared to higher growth rates in the Philippines (6%), Malaysia (5%), and Vietnam (6.4%).
- While Vietnam leads 2025 projections at 6.6% growth, ASEAN economies face long-term challenges from geopolitical tensions, trade polarization, and climate risks.
The ADB attributes this improvement to the growth of exports in the manufacturing sector and government investment in large-scale economic projects.
However, Thailand continues to underperform compared to other nations in the region. This underperformance can be attributed to various factors, including inconsistent policy implementation, limited investment in critical sectors, and challenges in fostering innovation and technological advancements.
According to the report, Thailand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by only 2.6% in 2024, driven primarily by government spending, tourism, and the expansion of the manufacturing sector during the first nine months of the year.
In contrast, other ASEAN countries show a more promising outlook. The Philippines leads the projections with GDP growth of 6% in 2024, supported by strong domestic consumption and substantial economic investments.
Malaysia and Vietnam also stand out, with growth forecasts of 5% and 6.4%, respectively, due to significant progress in recent years. These nations have demonstrated resilience and adaptability, driven by robust export sectors, increased foreign investments, and ongoing structural reforms aimed at enhancing economic competitiveness.
The ADB estimates that Thailand’s GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2025, which again falls short of other key regional economies.
Vietnam is projected to lead ASEAN with a growth rate of 6.6%, followed by the Philippines (6.2%) and Malaysia (4.6%).
The report highlights that Vietnam’s growth will be driven by a recovery in exports, economic stimulus measures, improvements in the US economy, and increased government spending.
Despite these positive forecasts, the ADB warns that ASEAN economies face significant challenges, including geopolitical tensions, global trade polarization, and extreme climate changes, all of which could hinder long-term growth.
Geopolitical tensions, the fragmentation of global trade systems, and the escalating impacts of climate change present significant long-term challenges to sustained progress. According to the latest Asian Development Outlook (ADO), released today, potential shifts in US trade, fiscal, and immigration policies could hinder growth and contribute to rising inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific. While these policy changes are expected to unfold gradually over time, their effects on the region are likely to become evident by 2026. However, the impacts could emerge sooner if the policies are implemented more swiftly or if US-based companies accelerate imports to preempt potential tariffs.
Vietnam’s projected leadership in growth, supported by stimulus measures and export recovery, serves as an example of resilience, but regional economies must collectively address these structural vulnerabilities.
To maintain momentum, ASEAN nations will need to balance immediate economic gains with strategic policies to mitigate external risks and ensure equitable, long-term development.
