UBS: Population growth is slowing and shifting away from major urban centres
Keystone-SDA
Population growth is slowing down and, driven by high rents and a persistent housing shortage, is shifting from major cities towards the outskirts of urban areas.
This is the conclusion reached by an analysis by UBS published on Friday. Driven by strong labour demand and the arrival of 70,000 refugees from Ukraine, Switzerland’s population rose by almost 460,000 people over the five-year period from 2021 to 2025, according to the bank’s experts. This increase corresponds to around 240,000 additional households. However, only around 220,000 new homes were built during the same period. The supply of housing has therefore failed to keep pace with the rise in demand.
According to UBS, however, the growth rate has now peaked. In 2025, the permanent resident population rose by around 76,000 people, which corresponds to an increase of just over 0.8%. For the current year, the bank forecasts a further slight slowdown to 0.7%.
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New arrivals make do with the dregs of the Zurich’s housing market
With average annual growth rates of between 1.4% and 1.6%, the cantons of Schaffhausen, Valais, Fribourg, Aargau and Thurgau have recorded the strongest growth over the past five years. They are all situated on the outskirts of major urban agglomerations. These cantons have not only attracted numerous new residents from abroad but have also drawn many families from other Swiss regions, UBS analysts point out. Consequently, the cantons of Basel-City, Geneva, Neuchâtel and Vaud have experienced a net loss of population to neighbouring regions.
This trend was particularly evident in the Zurich. Between 2021 and 2025, the city recorded high net immigration from abroad, totalling almost 38,000 people. At the same time, however, the pandemic, the housing shortage, the growing prevalence of remote working and the marked disparity in rents between the city centre and the suburbs meant that Zurich, in net terms, lost a record number of 21,500 people to other municipalities.
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Translated from Italian, reviewed by an English Department journalist.
