Swiss People’s Party leader Marcel Dettling at a protest outside the Federal Parliament in Bern.
Keystone / Alessandro Della Valle
The right-wing Swiss People’s Party currently dominates Switzerland’s political landscape. With a year to go before the federal elections, the party is stronger than ever. It can afford to take risks and expand its support, but this approach is not without potential pitfalls.
On December 9, parliament will elect a new cabinet minister. Guy Parmelin, the current economics minister who also holds the rotating Swiss presidency role, is stepping down. His seat on the Federal Council, Switzerland’s executive body, needs to be filled. This has presented his party, the People’s Party, with unexpected challenges. For weeks, it has struggled to put forward any potential successors.
“The country’s largest party appears to be completely overwhelmed and has failed to prepare for the succession of the Vaud politician in the Federal Council, even though his resignation came as no surprise,” declared an editorial in Le Temps newspaperExternal link last month.
Eight candidates have now entered the race, but many of the party’s biggest names have declined to stand. Notably, only two candidates are from French-speaking Switzerland. With the resignation of Parmelin – who comes from canton Vaud – a seat for French-speaking Switzerland is becoming vacant. Traditionally, the western region has been represented by at least two of the seven government seats.
However, French-speaking Switzerland is not the party’s stronghold. “The party is particularly strong in German-speaking Switzerland and is also led from there,” says Sean Müller, a political scientist at the University of Bern. As a result, it lacks a pool of candidates from French-speaking Switzerland who meet parliament’s criteria.
Potential candidates are generally expected to have leadership or government experience, ideally in a cantonal government, along with a network of political contacts in Bern. Former or current parliamentarians tend to have better chances.
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Swiss People’s Party risks alienating voters abroad ahead of 2027 elections
Strongest figures are hard to elect
A degree of predictability is also important. “Anyone standing for the Federal Council should have demonstrated a willingness to compromise,” says Corina Schena, a political scientist at the gfs.bern research institute. “They must also show that they can support collective government decisions, even if they go against their personal views.”
Looking at the field of candidates, she notes: “The more moderate figures within the People’s Party have either declined to stand or are not wanted by the party leadership.” That is the challenge facing the party: its strongest figures are often those who polarise opinion the most. “The question now is whether those who are best suited from the party’s point of view are electable in the eyes of parliament,” says Schena.
Following internal party hearings, a selection committee will chose two or three candidates. They will be assessed on their commitment to the party’s core issues: migration and the EU. A new People’s Party cabinet minister must continue to defend the party’s firm opposition to the Bilateral Agreements III – not in public but even more resolutely within the closed circle of the government.
No candidate is without flaws
Five figures stand out. Geneva parliamentarian Céline Amaudruz is the sole female contender. However, she reportedly enjoys little support within the Zurich party leadership, while her background in Geneva’s financial sector arouses suspicion. Her only rival from French-speaking Switzerland, Bernese Jura government minister Pierre-Alain Schnegg, could beat her to a spot on the final ticket.
Thomas Aeschi, parliamentary group leader, and lawmaker Céline Amaudruz at a People’s Party event.
Keystone / Martial Trezzini
But Schnegg also raises concerns. The 64-year-old is a member of an evangelical free church and stands for ultra-conservative values. The People’s Party parliamentary group leader Thomas Aeschi is the political heavyweight in the race. However, his reputation as a hardliner on the party’s right flank make him unlikely to command a majority in parliament.
Aargau government minister Jean-Pierre Gallati, on the other hand, is viewed favourably by many parliamentarians but faces resistance from sections of the party that opposed the federal government’s Covid strategy or sympathise with Russia.
That leaves former party president Marco Chiesa, now a senator for canton Ticino. He too is from a non-German-speaking part of the country and his election would mean Ticino holding a second seat in government.
A linguistic power struggle
“The expansion of the candidate field in German-speaking Switzerland can clearly be seen as an attack on Céline Amaudruz’s candidacy,” says Schena. “It is unclear whether the attack was directed at the candidate herself, or whether French-speaking Switzerland’s claim to representation is simply being subordinated to other priorities.” For her, one conclusion is obvious: “If a candidate from German-speaking Switzerland wins, it will offend party members in French-speaking Switzerland.”
Sean Müller agrees: “If no one from French-speaking Switzerland makes it onto the ticket, or if Pierre Alain-Schnegg is included as a token candidate, the party risks alienating the whole of French-speaking Switzerland.”
The party can afford to do so
Why is the party putting itself in this position in the first place? The most obvious answer is that it can afford to do so. In polls, the party is approaching the 30% mark, while in cantonal elections it continues to gain seats from rival parties. Party leaders believe there is room to grow even further and have set a target of 100,000 new voters.
“It has an extremely efficient machine in place, with motivated people who are willing to take to the streets for the party. There’s a new generation coming through, and the issues resonate,” says Müller.
The broader political climate is conservative and security-focused which naturally helps mobilise its base. The party’s core issues – asylum, migration and Europe – continue to win support, even in traditionally more cosmopolitan French-speaking Switzerland. Along with Ticino, it is one of the regions where the party has grown fastest and commands 20% of the vote.
Schena says this success is no accident. The party consistently manages to connect everyday concerns to its core issues. “There’s also a great deal of thought that goes into it. Explaining rising health insurance premiums as a result of immigration is quite an achievement.”
The party is also extremely popular among young men with conservative leanings. “Its traditional view of gender roles goes down very well with them,” says Schena. This means the party can afford to overlook women’s issues. Any support lost among women is largely offset by gains among younger male voters.
The enemy is now within
Now it is time to reap the rewards. The party is targeting those sections of the population that have otherwise distanced themselves from politics. To do so, it is adopting a harsher tone. “The left and those tired of their homeland are destroying Switzerland” is the campaign slogan, which identifies enemies within the country.
People’s Party President Marcel Dettling regularly refers to “the left” as a “mob” and “rabble”, and describes Justice Minister Beat Jans as the “minister for asylum rejections”.
“This vehemence and choice of words are surprising,” says Müller, arguing that the focus on an internal enemy is, in fact, very un-Swiss. Schena believes this strategy is carefully targeted: “Those who fear a loss of prosperity will be swayed by this message.”
The question is whether this wave of success will last until the elections in October 2027. Money is not a problem, nor is political expertise. Even after stepping back from day-to-day business, party veteran Christoph Blocher remains an influential figure and patron – and there are others.
Fault lines are emerging
Yet Blocher, of all people, recently misjudged the situation. During the neutrality initiative, he and the increasingly vocal pro-Russian wing discovered that many grassroots supporters harbour little sympathy for Vladimir Putin. Any attempt to undermine the funding of the Swiss army risks alienating not only loyal military officers within the party but also older voters shaped by the Cold War.
Müller also sees dangers in the party’s increasingly harsh rhetoric. Recently, a People’s Party cantonal lawmaker in Zurich criticised the local police in homophobic and misogynistic social media posts. “If the People’s Party becomes associated with homophobia, extremism or vulgarity, it could become dangerous for the party,” he says.
Schena, meanwhile, sees the greatest risks coming from within the party itself: in the rift between German-speaking and French-speaking Switzerland, and divisions over Russia. “Both among the grassroots and within the party leadership, there is an internal rift on this very important issue,” she says.
The party’s new government minister, who is unlikely to be a woman, could therefore face a particularly delicate task: mending the rifts caused by their election within their own party.
Edited by Samuel Jaberg/Adapted from German by Patrick Julian Huwyler/sb
