Although the most widespread impacts are expected later this year and into 2027, El Niño’s influence is already being felt across parts of the world.
The strength of an El Niño does not automatically determine the scale of impacts in any one location. Regional effects can vary considerably from one event to another.
However, some common patterns are emerging when compared with previous super El Niños.
During the 1997-98 event, severe drought across south-east Asia contributed to extensive peat and forest fires, while parts of East Africa experienced devastating floods.
The event also helped make 1998 the warmest year on record at the time.
A similar pattern developed during the 2015-16 El Niño.
Severe drought and wildfire activity returned to parts of south-east Asia, while southern Africa experienced one of its worst droughts in decades, triggering a major humanitarian crisis.
Another recurring signal is tropical cyclone activity. Strong El Niño events typically suppress Atlantic hurricanes while boosting activity across parts of the Pacific, a pattern that has also been observed during 2026.
The World Meteorological Organisation says drought and flood-related disruption is already being reported in several regions, with growing concerns over food security in parts of East Africa and the Asia-Pacific.
Forecasts from both the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate El Niño is likely to peak in December.
Dr Hausfather said the latest projections were “astonishing” and are likely to set new records “by a remarkable amount”.
