Market analysis by Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com
July 13, 2026
Bitcoin has recovered about 6% from its late-June lows to trade near $63,700, helped by a return of positive ETF inflows. Whether that recovery develops into a sustained uptrend will depend on fresh institutional demand and this week’s US macroeconomic data.
Institutional participation has improved, although it remains inconsistent. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a net $197.4 million during the July 6-10 trading week after inflows of $265.7 million on July 6 and $90.4 million on July 10 offset combined outflows of about $180 million on July 8 and 9. The return of positive weekly flows is encouraging, but it does not yet represent the kind of broad-based institutional accumulation that typically accompanies a strong bull market.
On-chain data also presents a mixed picture. Analysts’ desks estimate Bitcoin’s True Market Mean at about $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis near $72,200, leaving the current market price roughly 12-17% below both levels. In simple terms, many investors who bought Bitcoin over the past few months are still sitting on unrealised losses. If Bitcoin continues to recover, some of these investors may choose to sell once prices approach their purchase levels to recover their capital. That could create additional selling pressure around the $72,000-76,000 range before the market can sustain a stronger uptrend.
From a technical perspective, the market remains range-bound. Immediate support is located around $63,000, followed by $62,000 and the psychologically important $60,000 level. On the upside, Bitcoin needs to reclaim $65,000 before traders begin focusing on the $67,000-68,000 zone. A decisive move above those levels would improve market structure, while a break below $62,000 could expose Bitcoin to another test of recent lows.
Ethereum was trading near $1,800, up about 0.1% over the past 24 hours, while BNB gained around 0.4% to $575. XRP underperformed, declining about 1.6% to $1.08, while Solana was broadly unchanged near $76. TRON outperformed its large-cap peers with a gain of about 0.6% to $0.33. The relatively subdued moves across the largest altcoins suggest investors are still favouring established assets over higher-beta tokens, reflecting a cautious rather than risk-on market environment.
The coming week may prove more important than recent price action. The US Consumer Price Index on July 14, Producer Price Index on July 15, Federal Reserve Chair testimony before Congress, and the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28-29 will shape expectations for US interest rates. Crypto markets have become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic data, with Treasury yields and monetary policy expectations now exerting as much influence as blockchain-specific developments.
The market appears to be transitioning from panic selling towards cautious accumulation rather than entering a fresh bull phase. ETF demand has stabilised, on-chain valuation has become more attractive, and selling pressure has moderated. However, Bitcoin still needs stronger institutional participation and favourable macroeconomic signals before it can convincingly break above the $65,000 resistance zone and establish a more durable recovery.
Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing short-term rallies ahead of this week’s US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary. With Bitcoin trading between key support near $62,000 and resistance around $65,000, staggered accumulation and disciplined position sizing remain more prudent than aggressive directional bets.
