CITI on Bharti Airtel
Buy TP Rs 2190
Strong 1Q performance with India mobile revenue/EBITDA both growing ~4% qoq, 1.5% ahead of estimates.
On a yoy basis, India mobile revenue/EBITDA growth was 9%/12%, respectively, even in absence of tariff hikes.
Combined with strong double-digit growth in enterprise (Airtel Business), overall India (ex-Indus) revenue/EBITDA grew 11%/13% yoy.
Consolidated revenue/EBITDA at Rs585/336bn (+6%/5% qoq) were ~2-2.5% ahead of estimates.
Net debt declined 5% qoq, driven by contained capex and strong FCF generation.
CLSA on Bharti Airtel
O-P, TP Rs 2330
1QFY27 consol. revenue/Ebitda of Rs585.4bn/Rs333bn were up 6% QoQ each/18-20% YoY, ahead of estimates, with a positive surprise led by India & Africa operations
India mobile revenue/Ebitda were up 4% QoQ each/9-12% YoY
With launch of postpaid ‘fast lane’, Bharti had highest ever mobile postpaid net adds and Arpu reached Rs264, up 3% QoQ, now 22% higher vs sector leader
Its 1QFY27 consol. FCF was Rs165bn/US$1.7bn (after leases), with capex of Rs134bn/US$1.4bn, while gearing is low at 1.2x
Macquarie on Airtel
Recommendation – Outperform, Target ₹2220
Airtel delivered a strong June quarter
Strong and steady compounding
Subscriber growth adds has improved while ARPU was better than expected
Further gains in EBITDA margin underscores the operating leverage to an improving revenue line
Jefferies on Airtel
Recommendation – Accumulate; Target ₹2360, Earlier Target ₹2350
Steady Growth Delivery | Strong Outlook
Higher than expected mobile subscribers and ARPU
Strong growth in Airtel business & Africa and healthy FCF generation were key positive surprises
Expect 14%/28% CAGRs in EBITDA/EPS over FY27-29
CITI on Bharti Hexacom
Neutral, TP Rs 1710
1Q core mobile (ex-access) revenue grew 3.7% qoq, 1% ahead of estimates.
While ARPU was ahead of expectations, similar to Airtel, mobile sub adds were below.
Homes segment revenues grew 8% qoq but were 6% below estimates on fewer sub adds.
Overall revenue at Rs25.1bn (+4% qoq) was 1% ahead, aided by higher access revenues.
Latter was, however, offset by higher access charges, leading to 1Q EBITDA coming in line with estimates at Rs13.2bn (+4% qoq).
Net income at Rs4.8bn (+8% qoq) was 3% below estimates, primarily due to slightly higher D&A.
JPM on BSE
Neutral, TP Rs 4090
Revenues of Rs15.66bn (+63% YoY/flat QoQ), as sharp YoY step-up in equity derivatives lapped a high 4Q26 base
Transaction charges rose 80% YoY/1% QoQ to Rs13.3bn, driven by equity-derivative revenue of Rs11.6bn (+93% YoY/+2.4% QoQ) on average daily premium turnover (ADPTV) of Rs 296bn, an all-time high (+98% YoY/+3.8% QoQ).
EBITDA grew 67.1/0.5% YoY/QoQ to Rs10.46bn at a 66.8% margin (vs 65% a year ago)
Net profit was Rs 8.74bn (+62% YoY/+10% QoQ), aided by a strong Rs1.35bn investment income (+71% YoY/+119% QoQ) that management attributed to a reversal of prior-quarter MTM losses as bond yields eased.
Jefferies on BSE
Hold, TP Rs 3520 from Rs3440
Q1 EBITDA ex. SGF was in line with JEFe.
Trx charges grew 1% q-q as options ADTO growth slowed (+2% q-q) with VIX falling in May/ Jun’26
Expect ADTO growth to slow further in 2Q (JEFe: -11% q-q) with VIX remaining lower, & expiry day market share for BSE & NSE being similar
Further, risks may emerge for weekly option expiries from CAS
Management transition is a key monitorable
Trades at 48x FY27e EPS which ignores single product reliance.
UBS on BSE
Neutral, TP Rs 4500
Revenue broadly in line, earnings aided by stronger investment income
Healthy operating trends across trading and ancillary businesses
Management reiterated its focus on expanding market participation rather than targeting market share, highlighting growth in active members (>610) & FPIs (650) on derivatives platform
BSE continues to target a meaningful double-digit cash market share by early CY27, supported by improving institutional participation and ongoing efforts toward creating a more level playing field.
New product initiatives remain a key focus, including recently launched Focused IT Index derivatives, additional index-based derivatives, corporate bond initiatives, enhanced data products & StAR NPS platform
While management acknowledged industry-wide headwinds from higher STT, RBI’s lower proprietary leverage regulations coupled with volatile global macro conditions, it indicated that the direct impact on BSE’s options volumes has so far been relatively limited &remains difficult to isolate at this stage.
Jefferies on Pidilite
Hold, TP Rs 1610
PAT (+30%YoY) was beat to JEFe.
OPM at 26.2% (+300bps QoQ) is highest in last 5Y, despite volatile VAM (ME conflict).
Company hiked prices across categories, although no material volume pushback.
Volume growth (UVG) was healthy at +11%YoY, in tandem with FY26 UVG of +11%.
C&B segment (80% of sales; B2C) posted healthy UVG at 12%, while B2B segment’s UVG was at 7%.
Post 25% rally in 4M, PIDI’s 1-Y fwd PE at 59x is in-line with 10-Y avg.
GS on Pidilite
Buy, TP Rs 1700
Consol revenue grew 21.3% YoY (2% ahead of est), while consolidated EBITDA grew 26.9% YoY, (20% ahead of est)
Strong India volume growth led by consumer business, partly offset by a decline in exports
Consolidated EBITDA margin expansion driven by operating leverage offsetting gross margin decline
Macquarie on Pidilite
Recommendation – Underperform, Target ₹1350
Gross margin-led Q1 beat
Liked the continued strength in the consumer bazaar volume growth
Did not like the continued decline in export business-to-business segment performance
Concerned about the inability to extrapolate the low-cost inventory led gross margin beat seen in Q1
HSBC on Marico
Buy, TP Rs 1020
Q1FY27 – strong quarter with a 23%/25% Revenue/EBITDA growth; EBITDA 7% above estimate
Beyond new-age portfolio, even core portfolio seeing new launches e.g. almond oil; FY27 EBITDA could grow 20% yoy
Growth performance and diversification calls for re-rating
Nomura on Marico
Buy, TP Rs 1000
1QFY27: Above estimates; Consol sales/EBITDA grew 23%/25% y-y, above estimates of 21.5%/19.5% y-y;
OPM improved 35bp y-y to 20.7% despite step-up in ad spend (+25% y-y)
Outperformance continues; guidance upgrade two quarters in a row – OP to grow 20%+
Forecast a 17.7% EPS CAGR over FY26-29F.
Key risk: a sharp correction in copra prices.
Jefferies on Marico
Buy, TP Rs 1000 from Rs960
Continues to deliver best-in-class growth in revs & profitability
This consistency – in sharp contrast to most peers – makes it special
Earnings growth in 1Q27 accelerated to a multi-qtr high.
Operating margins expanded, despite higher A&P.
Mgmt commentary remains confident, with a clear goal of reducing the commodity-linked portion of the portfolio in favour of premium offerings; focus is also on fewer, bigger bets.
CLSA on Marico
U-P, TP Raised to Rs 703
1QFY27 consol. Ebitda growth of 25%, 9% above estimates.
Domestic volume growth came in at 11%
Remain concerned about
(1) slowdown in Parachute as we lap high price growth and c.10% price cuts in non-price-point packs,
(2) deceleration in VAHO as partial consumer demand shifts to coconut oil
(3) recent growth in the food business from acquisitions.
CITI on Kalyan Jewellers
Buy, TP Raised to Rs 800
Revenue (ex-bullion) grew 38% YoY (1% below Citi est).
However, EBITDA/PAT (ex-customs duty benefit of Rs410mn) grew 16%/20% YoY (17%/20% below Citi est) led by impact from higher share of old gold exchange (46% vs 30% in Q1FY26, 31% in Q4FY26), promotional offers as part of exchange campaign, & higher franchise revenue (57% in 1QFY27 vs 43% in 1QFY26)
Management highlighted:
(a) Inventory gain benefit (of Rs410mn) from customs duty was reinvested through offer for old gold exchange
(b) agreement signed to sell first set of non-core real estate assets for Rs1bn & additional real estate collateral release of Rs2bn is expected during FY27
While balance-sheet deleveraging remains on track, sharp 1QFY27 margin miss could weigh on stock in near term.
HSBC on FSN E Com
Buy, TP Rs 380
Robust GMV performance continues (BPC +28%, Fashion 53%); House of brands continues to scale
EBITDA margin up c195bp y-o-y (third quarter in a row of 150bps plus) as leverage begins to flow through
Increase FY27 EBITDA by 3% on Q1FY27 beat
CLSA on FSN E COM
O-P TP Rs 376
1QFY27 revenue growth of 29% YoY and Ebitda margin of 8.5%, up 196bps YoY, with Ebitda 6 above estimates.
Fashion’s NSV growth accelerated to 53% YoY (vs.+29% last quarter) as Nykaa strengthened brand partnerships on its platform as well as deeper ones with brands such as Nike.
Beauty NSV grew 29% YoY, with margin-accretive own brands growing 40%, driving margin expansion.
Nomura on FSN E Com
Buy, TP Rs 411
Growth accelerating and margin levers playing out
1QFY27 EBITDA ahead of consensus
Premiumization and AI-driven efficiencies helping drive growth
Expect Nykaa to sustain strong growth momentum with margin expansion driven by:
1) premiumization, 2) increasing brand partnerships and scale-up of own brands, 3) focus on physical expansion in Tier 2/3 cities.
Jefferies on FSN E Com
Buy, TP Rs 400 from Rs350
Strong beat across metrics – revenue growth remained strong, margin rose to a multi-quarter high, and profits surged.
Beauty gained from continued user growth, along with premiumisation and increased AOV; fashion posted >50% growth with EBITDA break-even.
House of brands continue to scale up while quick delivery widens its reach.
Valuation remains punchy but supported by strong growth and margin expansion.
Macquarie on Nykaa
Recommendation – Underperform, Target ₹220
Q1 EBITDA marginally ahead of Street
Disclosure levels lowered
Continued healthy gross margin performance in beauty on improving mix
Switch in disclosures for own beauty brands from GMV to net sales value (NSV), makes it difficult to analyse growth performance of own brands
Nomura on Uno Minda
Buy, TP Rs 1532
Growth visibility remains high
1QFY27 EBITDA ahead
Rising EV adoption & order wins across exports, sunroof, seating, etc. are demand tailwinds
Long-term growth visibility remains high given multiple growth tailwinds:
1) strong demand for EVs in India across 2W/4Ws,
2) rising export traction with potential for LMT exports from 2HFY27F on new capacity,
3) E-axle for 4W EV with Inovance
4) Sunroof/PV seating businesses should start contributing meaningfully in FY28F/29F
CLSA on Uno Minda
O-P, TP Rs 1469
1Q broadly in line, with Ebitda margin of 10.3%.
While reported margin was impacted by 40bps due to denominator effect from commodity inflation pass-through, adjusted for this, margins were flat YoY. Ebitda increased 21% YoY, largely tracking growth in PV and 2W OEM production volumes.
With OEMs indicating sustained demand momentum in FY27, with industry growth expected in the low teens, expect MNDA to continue outperforming broader market & deliver ~25% YoY revenue growth.
HSBC on Godrej Prop
Buy, TP Rs 3000
Bookings momentum continues, OCF compresses during quarter, but bold guidance on OCF and FCF for FY28
Believe progress towards 20% ROE (and its sustenance) and FCF generation will be next drivers of stock performance
Jefferies on Godrej Prop
Buy, TP Rs 2550
With 22% of launch / pre-sales and 48% of project add target met in 1Q, GPL has started FY27 well on operational parameters.
Management’s focus on improving financials is clearly visible as company guides for ~3x jump in revenue recognition run-rate over FY27-28
40% improvement in OCF & co. turning FCF positive by FY28
Believe sustained financial parameter delivery can drive a significant rerating.
Nomura on Godrej Prop
Neutral, TP Rs 2100
Remain Neutral as
(1) stock’s current valuation (at a 68% premium to NAV vs estimate of 75%) appears fair, and
(2) would like to see stronger evidence of execution/deliveries that are consistent with the company’s pre-sales growth
trajectory.
Overall, believe GPL’s FY27E pre-sales guidance of INR390bn looks achievable.
Positive FCFE by FY28E looks contingent on fact that company’s land acquisition costs moderate as it transitions to a steady-state growth phase.
However, expect pace of negative FCFE and consequent net debt growth to moderate going forward.
Morgan Stanley on Dr Agarwal’s Health
Recommendation – Overweight; Target ₹576, Earlier Target ₹555
Impressive Quarter; Same Store Sales Growth Improves
Q1 growth was strong: revenue +26% YoY and same store sales +16%
Management expects the latter to normalize over time
See premiumization-led growth, a large untapped market opportunity, robust expansion visibility, and improving ROCE
Valuation is still attractive
Jefferies on Dr Agarwal’s Health
Recommendation – Accumulate; Target ₹600, Earlier Target ₹510
Strong execution continues
Strong performance in Jun-Q
Expansion continues across all regions
See mid-teens volume growth as well as premiumization
SSSG growth continues to be robust
Jefferies on Motor Insurance
Multiple Positives For Motor Insurance From SC Verdict
This will lead to higher investment leverage and float income driving 2-5% higher PAT for Go Digit/ICICI Lombard
Go Digit being a larger beneficiary
SC’s measures for better compliance (56% vehicles uninsured) could drive a step jump in GWP growth
Third Party price hike still remains on the table
Morgan Stanley on Nestle
Recommendation – Equal-weight, Target ₹1538
Management was optimistic about the growth opportunity
Focus: penetration-led volume growth, innovation, premiumization, distribution, and brand investments
Macro headwinds could moderate consumption in the near term, but management is confident about being able to navigate this
Nestle will look to maintain margins – the brand investments will be funded out of cost savings and efficiencies
Macquarie on Nestle
Recommendation – Neutral, Target ₹1575
Confident on opportunity; limited on specifics
Focus on penetration/premiumisation
Concerns about industry growth
Large room for expanding reach
Sees near-term concerns on food industry growth
Jefferies on Nestle
Recommendation – Hold, Target ₹1425
Positive Long-Term Outlook Despite Near-Term Challenges
In his first address, Manish Tiwary (MD) laid out a clear, execution led growth agenda
Discussion centred on penetration-driven volume growth & premiumisation
There is significant runway through distribution expansion, brand investments & digital-led execution
Cost efficiencies are funding higher A&P while preserving profitability
Macquarie on ONGC
Recommendation – Outperform, Target ₹290
Q1FY27: Beat on crude tailwind; volumes slip
Volume inflection deferred to FY28
Key to watch – Volume ramp-up trajectory, capex phasing and dividend guidance
Morgan Stanley on PNB Housing
Recommendation – Overweight, Target ₹1405
Q1: PAT in line; stronger loan growth; weaker NIM
Underlying retail disbursement growth was well above estimate
Ex accounting change, it could have added 2 ppt to loan growth
NII and NIM missed, due to higher leverage and lower investment yield
Morgan Stanley on India Strategy
India has the ingredients to sustain its recent outperformance with improving growth and benign valuations
Albeit sustaining it may still depend on what happens elsewhere in the world
The principal catalyst is how the market gauges the growth gap between India and the world
That view may shift if global sentiment turns cautious on AI capex and/or India’s growth accelerates
The current quarterly earnings season is underscoring the latter, the volatility in global AI trade is hinting at the former
Expect high frequency indicators to continue to exhibit positive momentum
India is amid far-reaching reforms that could lift growth rates in the coming quarters as well as make capital flows easier
A rising wave of IPOs could lend further support until it turns excessive – a point we see as several months off
Favour Domestic Cyclicals over Defensives and externally facing sectors
Overweight Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials
Underweight Energy, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare
IT services may prove the dark horse as the world turns to these firms to build AI applications and solutions
HSBC on India Strategy
India offers diversification and stability
AI rotation outflows largely done
With 80%+ of GEM funds underweight India, a move back to neutral could bring $25bn of inflows
High-frequency indicators remain constructive; Q1FY27 results have generally come in better than expected
Favour quality growth names in domestically driven sectors – financials, autos, retail, and hospitals
Private banks and real estate look relatively attractive after their underperformance, while diversified NBFCs stand out
Like selected industrials benefiting from government policy support
Within consumption, prefer consumer discretionary over staples
Key Stock Ideas – ICICI Bank, Cholamandalam, Titan, M&M, Phoenix Mills, Fortis Healthcare, Cummins India, Syrma SGS, Adani Ports and Hindalco
