S&P Confirms Thailand’s BBB+ Credit Rating, Stable Outlook Maintained

S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Thailand’s sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook, citing steady economic growth and ongoing stimulus measures.

Key Takeways

• S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Thailand’s sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook, anticipating GDP growth from 1.9% in 2023 to 3.1% by 2025, led by economic stimulus measures and a strong tourism recovery. Thailand’s real GDP is projected to average 3.0% through 2027.
• Pachara Anantasilp, Director-General of the Public Debt Management Office, emphasizes crucial factors like investment in the Eastern Economic Corridor and infrastructure projects. State enterprise investments and public-private partnerships are pivotal for advancing these initiatives.
• Thailand’s net government debt-to-GDP ratio might rise by 3.3% in 2025, with stimulus measures such as cash handouts. Expected export sector recovery and a robust tourism industry could lead to a 2.3% average current account surplus from 2024 to 2027. Consistent economic policies and political stability may upgrade Thailand’s credit rating to A-.

The agency forecasts steady economic growth for the country, expecting GDP to rise from 1.9% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024, and 3.1% in 2025. This growth will be driven by ongoing economic stimulus measures and a strong recovery in the tourism sector. Over the 2024–2027 period, Thailand’s real GDP growth is projected to average 3.0%.

Pachara Anantasilp, Director-General of the Public Debt Management Office, highlighted key factors contributing to the positive outlook. S&P expects the government to continue prioritizing investments that align with national strategies. These include the development of the Eastern Economic Corridor and large-scale transportation infrastructure projects. Investments by state enterprises and public-private partnerships are also expected to drive these initiatives forward.

The net government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise by 3.3% in 2025. This increase is partly attributed to economic stimulus measures such as the 2024 Economic Stimulus Program, which includes 10,000-baht cash handouts for eligible citizens.

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