BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 28. The first-quarter
results of 2026 provide a clear indication of the accelerating
transformation of Uzbekistan’s economy. In recent years, the
country has prioritized liberalization, industrialization, and the
attraction of foreign investment, and the early-year performance
serves as a key indicator of the sustainability of these reforms
and the ability to maintain growth momentum amid global economic
uncertainty.
Preliminary data suggest that actual outcomes exceeded
projections. Between January and March, Uzbekistan’s gross domestic
product expanded by 8.7%, industrial production grew by 8%, the
services sector increased by 16.1%, and agricultural output rose by
5.1%. Exports reached $5.8 billion, while foreign investment
totaled $13.7 billion, and annual inflation declined to 7.1%.
These results reveal an important structural trend: economic
growth is occurring simultaneously across multiple sectors, thereby
reducing vulnerability to external market fluctuations and
enhancing the sustainability of overall growth.
The services sector remains a principal driver of this
expansion. Its growth of more than 16% reflects robust domestic
demand and the expansion of trade, transport, banking, digital
services, and small business activities. For a transitional
economy, such development in the services sector is a key indicator
of the deepening of market-oriented reforms.
Industry is also maintaining solid momentum. Uzbekistan
continues its course toward production localization, deeper raw
materials processing, machinery manufacturing, and the development
of the textile and chemical industries. This is particularly
important for increasing domestic value-added output and boosting
non-commodity exports.
The authorities are also paying close attention to inflation.
Despite the decline to 7.1%, officials in Tashkent acknowledge that
rising prices remain one of the key challenges.
External factors are also adding pressure to prices. Rising
global oil prices, changing logistics routes, and higher
transportation costs are creating additional strain on imports and
the domestic market. The International Monetary Fund also expects
inflation in 2026 to remain above the Central Bank’s target level
before moving closer to the goal in 2027.
Against this backdrop, investment activity is becoming one of
the central pillars of economic strategy. The authorities have set
a target of attracting $53 billion in foreign investment in 2026,
with emphasis placed not only on volume, but also on project
quality -job creation, export growth, and technological
modernization of production.
Additional investor interest is being supported by steps to
develop the financial market. In April, plans were announced to
list a 30% stake in Uzbekistan’s National Investment Fund on the
London and Tashkent stock exchanges. This would mark the first
placement of a state Uzbek asset on the international capital
market at such a scale.
The regional factor also remains important. Uzbekistan is the
largest market in Central Asia by population and one of the
fastest-growing in the region. For this reason, the country is
increasingly being viewed as a potential manufacturing, logistics,
and investment hub between China, the Middle East, and the CIS
countries.
At the same time, structural challenges remain alongside the
successes. These include the need to raise labor productivity,
accelerate job creation, modernize infrastructure, and improve the
efficiency of certain investment projects. According to the
authorities, some previously launched enterprises are still
operating below full capacity.
The first-quarter results show the key point: Uzbekistan is
entering 2026 with strong economic momentum. If the country
succeeds in keeping inflation under control, maintaining the pace
of reforms, and effectively using incoming investment flows,
Tashkent could strengthen its position as one of Eurasia’s new
centers of growth.
