Raiffeisen: “Growth stronger than expected; the SNB will now raise interest rates”
Keystone-SDA
Raiffeisen’s economists have significantly revised their forecasts for the Swiss economy upwards and expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to bring its zero-interest-rate policy to an end in the near future.
In an analysis published on Thursday, the Swiss bank now forecasts growth in gross domestic product (GDP) – excluding the effects of major sporting events – of 1.7% for 2026. The previous estimate stood at +0.8%. For 2027, however, Raiffeisen confirms its forecast of 1.3% growth.
According to the bank, the Swiss economy remains on a path to recovery and has so far been little affected by the consequences of the war in the Middle East. Business confidence has held up even in the face of the renewed escalation of the conflict in September, while second-quarter growth figures came in stronger than expected, buoyed by the dynamism of the pharmaceutical sector.
The bank’s experts have also revised their inflation estimates upwards: in 2026, prices will rise by 0.7%, compared with the previously forecast +0.5%, while for 2027, a rise of +1.1% is expected, up from the previous forecast of +0.8%. The impact of high energy prices is likely to last longer than hoped, while underlying inflation will tend to rise due to the weaker Swiss franc and increased pressure from abroad.
Consequently, Raiffeisen expects the SNB to raise interest rates soon. The Swiss economy is now operating close to its potential, while inflation remains comfortably within the bank’s target range of 0–2%: the zero-interest-rate policy, which has so far supported the economy, therefore appears increasingly inappropriate.
According to Raiffeisen’s analysts, President of the SNB Martin Schlegel could therefore adjust interest rates as early as its next assessment of the economic and monetary situation, scheduled for December 10.
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Translated from German, reviewed by an English Department journalist
