A new poll reveals the possible electoral impact of Spain’s second deadly rail crash of the year ahead of the November 29th snap election, with the Socialists dipping below the 100 seat psychological threshold in Congress.
The new poll showed that the governing Socialists (PSOE) have taken a hit in the polls following the train crash in Urda (Toledo) that killed 69 people on Wednesday October 28th.
This comes ahead of the general election in Spain on November 29th, in which the polls have long suggested the right-wing bloc will win a majority.
The new Sigma Dos polling for right-leaning daily El Mundo shows that the PSOE has fallen below 25 percent following the crash, reversing the slight uptick in PSOE voting intention since the snap election was called.
According to the Sigma Dos barometer, compiled between October 29th and 30th, the Socialists lost 450,000 votes in the two days after the devastating train collision.
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The data also appears to show that the second deadly train accident of the year, following the Ademuz disaster in January, has pushed the PSOE to new lows and below the psychological threshold of 100 seats in Congress.
Following Urda, the poll now shows an immediate drop of 1.7 points for the Socialists, and the decline is particularly marked amongst young people, where the party has lost nine points and now ranks third.
The centre-right Partido Popular (PP) is back on the path to growth, with a rise of five tenths of a percentage point in a week, putting it at 31.1 percent of the vote.
That is almost exactly the same as the decline recorded by Vox over the same period, as its support has fallen to 19.3 percent.
Spanish journalist and electoral analyst Pablo Pombo explained on Onda Cero’s ‘Mas de Uno’ programme that, unlike other polls published in recent days – which include responses collected before the tragedy – the Sigma Dos poll was compiled using interviews conducted on the Thursday and Friday following the accident.
“It is particularly significant, even if it is just a snapshot of a seismic shift and it will take time,” noted the analyst, who does, however, believe that future polls are needed to verify whether the trend is holding.
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One of the figures Pombo has emphasised most is the shift in support for the Socialist Party among young people.
He also highlighted the 3.5 point drop in support for the PSOE amongst women.
The Sigma Dos poll also noted the shift in the transfer of votes between parties away from the PSOE: “One in seven – or almost one in seven – of Sánchez’s voters in 2023 are now switching to the PP or Vox,” Pombo noted.
