THE PHILIPPINES’ rice imports this year could reach 4.8 million metric tons (MMT), potentially matching or exceeding the elevated level recorded in 2024, as rising input costs and a looming El Niño threaten domestic output, the Department of Agriculture (DA) said.
“Because of the pressure, it’s possible that we will import 4.8 million metric tons this year, or more,” Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel V. de Mesa told reporters on Tuesday.
He said the DA’s rice program has raised its import projection from an initial 4 MMT to ensure an 85-day year-end stock, a food security benchmark used by the agency.
For the first quarter alone, the Bureau of Plant Industry said the country imported 1.29 MMT of rice, which was 40.17% higher than the year-earlier shipments of 917,855 MT and 71.54% higher than the DA’s earlier forecast of 750,000 MT.
The DA said higher import volumes are needed to help stabilize local supply and prices amid a projected decline in rice production this year.
“There’s pressure because we’ll see in the next planting… we have three shocks that we can expect,” Mr. de Mesa said, citing rising oil prices, higher fertilizer costs, and a looming El Niño.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Wednesday raised an El Niño alert, saying the phenomenon is likely to develop in the coming months and begin as early as June, bringing drier-than-usual conditions that could affect agriculture.
Mr. de Mesa said higher fuel costs could increase expenses for land preparation and farm operations, while fertilizer prices are being monitored at around P2,500 to P2,800 per bag.
The DA earlier cut its 2026 palay (unmilled rice) output estimate to 19.87 MMT from the original 20.28 MMT target following weaker first-quarter data.
“Because of the reduction in the estimates, their projection was reduced to 19.87 MMT,” Mr. de Mesa said.
The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that palay production in the first quarter likely declined 6.9% to 4.37 MMT from 4.7 MMT a year earlier.
Mr. de Mesa said output could fall further if input costs remain elevated.
“The 19.87 MMT can be further reduced… if the price of fertilizer goes up to as high as P3,500 per bag… [and] if the price of oil goes up to P150 to P190,” he said.
If production falls to around 18.8 MMT, this would be the lowest palay output since the 17.62 MMT recorded in 2016.
The DA said it is also monitoring the potential impact of El Niño, which could further dampen production in the coming months.
Mr. de Mesa said risks are more pronounced for the second cropping season, where output losses could be significant.
“For the second cropping season, the best-case scenario is 20% reduction in output; worst case is 50%,” he said.
“The projected harvest of the second crop is 10 to 11 million metric tons… 20% of that is 1 to 2 million metric tons. If it is half, it is up to 5 million metric tons that can be lost. That is the worst-case scenario.”
Meanwhile, the DA said it is promoting the use of biofertilizers as a cost-effective alternative to fuel-based inputs to help cushion the impact of rising costs.
“Many farmers are already using different types of biofertilizer, [and] it can reduce the requirements of inorganic [fertilizer] from 20% up to 50%,” Mr. de Mesa said.
He added that P500 million of the DA’s P1-billion Quick Response Fund, activated following the declaration of a state of national energy emergency, will be used to procure biofertilizers ahead of the next cropping season. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel
