When the head of a Russian tractor manufacturer set off on the 370-kilometer journey to the Moscow Economic Forum earlier this month, he was about to put his company on the map with some stinging criticism of his country’s authorities.
Video spread online of Vladimir Boglayev saying he could not remember a time since the 1990s when those in positions of power were “so actively” discrediting themselves.
“The people at the top have completely lost touch with the reality on the ground, in the economy,” he said.
Boglayev’s comments at the April 7-8 event would perhaps not be quite so remarkable but for the context in which they were made.
In a country where dissent is rare and often harshly punished, particularly since Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, recent weeks have seen a number of critical public statements relating to the faltering economy and to a crackdown on Internet use.
“While each individual act of criticism may seem irrelevant, together they are significant,” Tatyana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote on April 21, referring to the dissent over online restrictions.
“To use a medical analogy: minor and difficult-to-explain symptoms can be a passing inconvenience — or a sign of life-threatening illness,” she added.
Very little of this criticism targets President Vladimir Putin personally and almost none of it opposes the war in Ukraine — though one longtime Putin backer abruptly called the president a “war criminal” and swiftly wound up in a psychiatric hospital for a month, and pro-war bloggers have complained that the war is not being waged effectively.
Some analysts, such as Stanovaya, have suggested the Internet dispute reveals a behind-the-scenes battle between structures in and around the Federal Security Service (FSB) on the one hand, and business or economic interests, including those in government, on the other. In other words, a battle between rival groups that are both loyal to Putin.
If so, Putin hinted which side he is on in comments on April 23 when he referred to “problems with the Internet crashing” in big cities.
“If this is connected to operations to prevent terrorist attacks…security will always be the priority,” he said, reading from handwritten notes during a video conference with senior officials. State authorities have said the restrictions are needed to protect against Ukrainian drone attacks.
At the same time, Putin cautiously acknowledged that the outages are making waves among Russians , urging officials to find solutions and make sure vital services function.
‘The Economy Is Collapsing’
The latest economic figures spell out what Boglayev was getting at, with Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking by 1.8 percent over January and February. This is also the backdrop to some of the pushback on Internet restrictions, which have hit many businesses hard.
“The economy is collapsing. This means there will be no investment, no jobs, and no profits. According to Russia’s state statistics agency’s estimates, profits also fell by 30 percent at the beginning of this year — a record decline since the start of the war with Ukraine,” Vladislav Zhukovsky, an independent economist, told RFE/RL’s Russian Service on April 22.
“Companies no longer have the money — even in the military-industrial sector — to pay more in order to attract workers to defense plants to produce tanks, shells, and other weapons. This year the situation will be much worse,” he added.
Boglayev, whose company makes spare parts for the metallurgical, machine-tool, and petrochemical sectors as well as tractors, has spoken out in the past.
In September last year, for instance, he dismissed suggestions that Russia had succeeded in diversifying its economy to rid it of dependence on fossil fuel exports.
He’s not a lone voice.
Other speakers in Moscow included Robert Nigmatulin, from the Russian Academy of Sciences, who lamented job losses in heavy industry.
“Can we invest in a country with leadership like this? You can’t run an economy this way. We need to tell the president,” he said.
In March, oligarch Oleg Deripaska made waves with an attack on the Central Bank, urging its economists to “come to your senses” and cut interest rates.
Putin himself deflected blame onto those below him last week but cast his net wider, delivering a televised dressing-down to his top economic officials and advisers, including Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina, amid the gloomy economic indicators.
A ‘Time Machine’ To The USSR
It’s an irony that restrictions to the Internet, part of efforts to stifle dissent, have also fueled it.
The measures have included mobile Internet blackouts, the blocking of the popular Telegram social media app, and moves to stop people using VPNs (virtual private networks) to get around existing restrictions and access services such as Instagram.
This clearly also has a huge economic impact, not just on banal e-commerce interactions like booking a cab, a meal delivery, or doing other shopping. It also hits influencers hard, and criticism from Russian Instagram star Victoria Bonya was perhaps the most impactful to date.
Her online video focused on an eclectic mix of issues that included the online restrictions but also covered floods in Daghestan, pollution on the Black Sea coast, and livestock culls in Siberia.
Addressed directly to Putin, it steered clear of blaming him for unpopular measures but appeared to suggest his authoritarian leadership was part of the problem. And it racked up some 20 million views.
“Vladimir Vladimirovich, they’re afraid of you. The people are afraid of you; bloggers, artists are afraid; governors are afraid of you. But you are the president of our country. I don’t think we should be afraid of you,” she said.
Bonya subsequently clarified that Putin had her backing, before getting embroiled in a bitter row with pro-Kremlin TV talk show host Vladimir Solovyov, who called her a “harlot” with a “dirty mouth.”
Aiza, another influencer, told her 4 million followers that Russia suffered from “dead journalism, dead jurisprudence, [and] dead humor — because jokes are harshly punished in our country.” Amid growing controversy, she later deleted the post.
Actor Ivan Okhlobystin, who has previously called for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine to be declared a “holy war,” also weighed in.
“Digital restrictions are a huge mistake. Firstly, you cannot really ‘restrict’ anything (we live in the 21st century)” he wrote in a post, where else, on Telegram. “If you want to take us back to the USSR you’ll need to build a time machine.”
Prague-based Russian sociologist Dmitry Dubrovsky told Current Time that Bonya had become “an unexpected spokesperson for a part of society that, usually, nobody speaks for: concerned ordinary folk…who don’t want anything to do with politics.”
In any case, the uptick in criticism comes as Putin’s popularity ratings are in decline and ahead of parliamentary elections in the fall. These elections will be neither free nor fair, if previous history is any guide. But still, Dobrovsky said he expected the Kremlin’s response to be an easing of Internet restrictions.
“It will certainly happen before the elections. It could be a temporary measure. But I think they will try to water down the restrictions, particularly on Telegram,” he added.
Regardless of how effective this would be, it is something that the Kremlin has the power to do. Resolving Russia’s deep-seated economic problems may be a tougher nut to crack.
