BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 22. Kazakhstan’s
crude oil deliveries to IEA member countries are expected to
increase in 2026 and 2027, following significant fluctuations in
quarterly and monthly volumes this year.
This was reflected in a publication issued by the International
Energy Agency (IEA).
According to the report, deliveries of selected Kazakh crude
streams to IEA member countries are estimated to average 1.17
million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, up 21.9% from 0.96 mb/d in
2025. The figure is projected to rise further to 1.35 mb/d in 2027,
an increase of 15.4% compared with 2026, according to Trend’s
calculations.
The quarterly figures show a sharp decline at the beginning of
2026, followed by a strong recovery. Deliveries averaged 1.39 mb/d
in both the third and fourth quarters of 2025, before falling to
0.92 mb/d in the first quarter of 2026. They then climbed to 1.48
mb/d in the second quarter, up 60.9% quarter-on-quarter, Trend
reports.
Monthly data also point to considerable volatility. Deliveries
reached 1.57 mb/d in May 2026, before declining to 1.26 mb/d in
June, a decrease of 19.7%. They subsequently recovered to 1.49 mb/d
in July, rising 18.3% month-on-month, Trend’s calculations
show.
The report’s figures do not specify the reasons for these
quarterly and monthly changes. However, Kazakhstan’s oil export
flows faced operational disruptions during 2026. Reuters reported
that maintenance at the Tengiz field and interruptions to loading
operations at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal
affected shipments. In July, the temporary suspension of terminal
operations following attacks on tankers led to production cuts,
while CPC exports increased in August as loading activity
stabilised. These developments provide broader context for
fluctuations in oil flows, although the available information does
not establish a direct link between individual incidents and the
IEA’s selected-stream delivery figures.
