A deep dive into GST collection data shows that among the key States, collection remained flat in Haryana, while Delhi, West Bengal and Rajasthan saw a decline
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Twenty out of 38 States and Union Territories registered de-growth of up to 24 per cent in Goods & Services Tax (GST) collection in October, data from GST Portal showed. However, with big States still in positive zone, a research report by SBI projects GST revenue for FY26 will still be higher than budget estimates.
A deep dive into GST collection data shows that among the key States, collection remained flat in Haryana, while Delhi, West Bengal and Rajasthan saw a decline. The list of States and UTs showing a decline also included Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala beside others. One striking trend was observed in 8 North Eastern States, where six registered collection slipped in October compared to September.
This has an impact on the overall collection from domestic sources, which was mere 2 per cent. “This is due to the somewhat muted demand in the first three weeks of September 2025, where some of the discretionary purchases were postponed to the last week of the month, or even in the subsequent month, awaiting the reduction in price due to rate cuts. Further, the rate reductions, which became effective in the last week of September 2025, also impacted the overall collections, despite the actual buying likely to have shown an uptick,” said said Karthik Mani, Partner at BDO India.
overall collection
However, the overall collection is expected to improve. “”The collections for November 2025 are likely to be higher, both due to festival demand and increased affordability from lower rates. The impact of the rate reduction should be offset by the higher volume of supplies,” said Manoj Mishra, Partner at Grant Thornton Bharat. Further, early retail indicators show broad-based demand across autos, FMCG, apparel and electronics, reflecting renewed consumer confidence.
Meanwhile, in their research report, economists at SBI led by Soumya Kanti Ghosh (also a member of 16th Finance Commission and part-time member of Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister), said the strong momentum in GST collections not only expels fears of a sharp decline, it also refutes the apprehension expressed by States about a perceived decline in GST revenue post rationalisation.
For example, “Karnataka had estimated a monthly decline of ₹7,083 crore, while West Bengal had estimated a monthly decline of ₹1,667 crore. In reality, gains for Karnataka are 10 per cent (Oct 2025 compared to Oct 2024), while Punjab has gained around 4 per cent and Telangana’s gain is again 10 per cent. The decline for West Bengal is marginal at 1 per cent, while Kerala has witnessed a decline of 2 per cent,” said the report titled The Loss That Never Was.
Further, assuming that States experience same gains and losses post rationalisation as on October 2025, “we project GST revenue for FY26 will still be higher than budgeted GST collections,” said the report. The projections are based on the growth rate released by the GST Council. The Budget Estimates of GST Collection for Central government (CGST and Compensation Cess) for FY26 is pegged at ₹11.78 lakh crore, which is nearly 11 per cent higher than that of FY25.
Published on November 2, 2025
