Domestic markets are likely to open on flat to negative note on Monday amid mixed global cues. Analysts expect cautious trend to prevail due to heavy FPI selling. Analysts also expect trading to remain a low-key affair due to the shortened trading week.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth-tech firm, said Indian equity markets are likely to remain cautious as renewed geopolitical uncertainty and a rebound in crude oil prices weigh on investor sentiment. The rejection by U.S. President Donald Trump of Iran’s proposal to resolve the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has revived concerns over prolonged supply disruptions, making oil prices the dominant factor for global markets.
Gift Nifty 23,160 indicates a flat opening.
Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, The Derivatives structure has turned distinctly cautious. “PCR has fallen to 0.76, with total Call OI at 24.26 crore contracts versus Put OI of 17.69 crore, indicating substantially higher Call-side positioning. Significant Call concentration is visible around 23,300–23,500, with 24,000 carrying the largest visible Call OI, creating a broad overhead supply zone.”
On the Put side, positioning around 23,000 provides the immediate cushion; a decisive break below this level could expose the index to the next support band around 22,800–22,850. Volatility has also reversed sharply. India VIX jumped 22.64% to 12.6875, highlighting a significant increase in expected market volatility following the sell-off. Independent market data also records India VIX closing at approximately 12.68 on September 24.
Overall, the Technical and Derivatives setup has turned bearish. Sustained recovery above 23,268 is required to stabilise the structure, while failure to hold 23,000 would keep the index vulnerable towards 22,850–22,800.
On the FPI front, Dheeraj Gaur, Chief Investment Strategy Officer , Choice Wealth, said the underlying secondary-market trend remains cautious. “Based on settled data, FPIs sold roughly ₹2,006 crore in secondary equities during the week, while primary-market investments were approximately ₹5,848 crore. In other words, the foreign investor is not exiting Indian equities uniformly; rather, there is a clear preference for selective primary-market opportunities over broad-based secondary-market exposure,” he said.
Analysts expect global events will continue to anchor market movement.
According to Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research, Religare Broking, Globally, developments around US-Iran diplomacy and crude oil prices will remain critical. Any progress on a framework for reopening the Strait of Hormuz could ease energy prices and provide some relief to India’s import bill and the rupee, while renewed geopolitical tensions could keep volatility elevated.
On the domestic front, industrial production data for August, government budget data, the external debt position and the HSBC Manufacturing PMI reading will be released during the week.
Foreign exchange reserves data for the period will be released on 2 October and will remain in focus amid continued sensitivity around crude oil and currency movements, he added.
Published on September 28, 2026
