BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 29. The refinancing rate
in Tajikistan is expected to remain at moderate levels in the
medium term, with the indicator projected at 7.2% in 2026 and
gradually increasing to 8% by 2028.
This is stated in the Eurasian Development Bank’s latest
macroeconomic outlook.
“The expected moderate increase in the refinancing rate will
help limit the risk of inflation exceeding the upper boundary of
the target range, while inflation is expected to remain within the
National Bank of Tajikistan’s target corridor of 5±2% throughout
the forecast period,” the document said.
According to the forecast, the average annual refinancing rate
is expected to decrease to 7.2% in 2026 from 8.2% in 2025 and 9.3%
in 2024. The rate is projected to rise to 7.5% in 2027 and 8% in
2028.
The EDB expects Tajikistan’s economy to maintain high growth
rates, with GDP growth projected at above 8% in 2026. The bank
noted that strong consumer and investment activity, supported by
favourable external economic conditions, will remain key factors
supporting expansion.
The report noted that economic activity remains broad-based.
Real GDP increased by 8% year-on-year in January–March 2026,
following growth of 8.4% in 2025.
Growth was supported by major sectors of the economy. Industrial
output increased by 14% year-on-year, agricultural production
expanded by 8%, wholesale and retail trade grew by 22.1%, while
freight turnover in the transport sector increased by 19.1%.
The EDB noted that maintaining a balanced refinancing rate
alongside stable inflation dynamics could support continued
economic activity while preserving price stability. The gradual
adjustment of monetary conditions may help balance strong domestic
demand with inflation control objectives.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) is maintaining the energy
sector as a key priority of its investment strategy in Central Asia
for 2026–2027, while expanding its focus on the water-food-energy
nexus, a source from the Bank’s Analytical Department told Trend in an exclusive
interview.
According to the source, the Bank does not plan a major shift in
investment priorities under its strategy through 2031. The EDB
continues to focus on renewable energy development, expansion of
power grids and storage systems, modernisation of existing
capacities, as well as green industrialisation as a driver of
sustainable growth in the region. The Bank also highlighted Central
Asia’s strategic role in the energy transition, noting both
existing challenges and opportunities for further investment and
cooperation.
The projected trajectory of Tajikistan’s refinancing rate
reflects an approach aimed at maintaining a balance between
supporting economic growth and preserving price stability. The
expected moderate increase in the rate after 2026 may allow
monetary authorities to respond to inflation risks while keeping
financial conditions supportive for investment and economic
activity. With GDP growth remaining above 8% and key sectors
demonstrating strong expansion, maintaining a stable monetary
environment could contribute to sustainable growth, although the
effectiveness of policy measures will depend on inflation dynamics,
external conditions and domestic demand trends.
