Economists lower growth forecast for 2025 only slightly
Keystone-SDA
Despite growing uncertainty, economic experts believe that economic development in Switzerland will only be marginally weaker than recently. Meanwhile, GDP growth is expected to accelerate in 2026.
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The economists surveyed as part of the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) Consensus Forecast expect real, adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by an average of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The forecast for unadjusted GDP growth is 1.2% and 1.8% respectively for the coming year, as announced by KOF on Monday.
This means that the growth prospects for the current year are estimated to be slightly weaker than recently. In the December survey, economists had still expected growth of 1.5% after adjustment for sporting events and unadjusted growth of 1.3%. Values for 2026 have now been published in the KOF Consensus for the first time.
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Swiss economy to slow for two years
The main reason for the slightly weaker expected economic development in the current year is the lower expectations for capital investment. The experts anticipate an increase of 1.3% in 2025, compared to the 1.8% growth they had expected in December. The trend in equipment investment in particular is likely to weaken, while the figures for construction investment have only been lowered slightly.
Inflation expected to remain low
With regard to the development of inflation, the respondents continue to expect low values. The expected inflation rate for the current year fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.5%, while an inflation rate of 0.8% is predicted for 2026.
The long-term inflation expectations of the KOF Consensus remain unchanged at +1.0%, with long-term GDP growth of 1.7% (unadjusted).
The outlook for the future situation on the Swiss labour market has deteriorated slightly. The consensus value for the unemployment rate for 2025 is now 2.8%, compared to 2.7% in the December survey. A rate of 2.8% is also expected for 2026 and in the long term.
Some 14 economists took part in the KOF Consensus Forecast. The survey was conducted from February 27 to March 19, 2025.
Translated from German by DeepL/jdp
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