Economic growth forecasts for Switzerland revised upwards

Forecasts for economic growth in Switzerland this year have improved significantly. This is now also reflected in the latest survey of Swiss economists conducted by the KOF Institute.

In the survey conducted in September as part of the KOF Consensus Forecast, the experts now expect real gross domestic product (GDP, seasonally adjusted) to grow by 1.7% in 2026. In the last survey in June, the average growth forecast stood at +0.9%, the KOF announced on Friday.

Respondents have also revised their growth expectations for the coming year upwards. The KOF Consensus figure for adjusted GDP growth in 2027 now stands at +1.7%, up from a June forecast of +1.5%.

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Strong investment

Growth is being driven not least by investment activity: experts expect real fixed capital formation to rise by 1.5% in 2026 (June: +0.9%) and by 2.2% in 2027 (June: +1.8%).

Construction investment is set to rise by 2.4% in 2026 (June: +1.2%) and by 1.9% in 2027 (June: +1.6%). Expectations for foreign trade have also been revised upwards.

Seventeen economists took part in the survey, which was conducted from September 3-23, 2026.

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Lower inflation

By contrast, the experts now expect inflation to be slightly lower than previously forecast. They now forecast a rise in the consumer price index of 0.6% for the current year (June: +0.7%) and 0.8% for next year (June: +0.9%).

The outlook for the Swiss labour market, however, remains unchanged. The unemployment rate is again expected to be 3.1% for the current year and 3% for 2027.

Respondents do not expect any major changes in the franc’s external value. The Swiss currency’s exchange rate against the euro is likely to remain at around 0.93 CHF/EUR in three months’ time, while in 12 months’ time the exchange rate is expected to be 0.92. Against the US dollar, a slight decline to 0.81 CHF/USD is expected, falling to 0.80 CHF/USD in 12 months’ time.

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Translated from German, reviewed by an English Department journalist.