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(Bloomberg) — Before the trading day starts we bring you a digest of the key news and events that are likely to move markets. Today we look at:
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- Auto blues
- India haven
- Macro revival
Good morning, this is Ashutosh Joshi, an equities reporter in Mumbai. Local stocks are set for a lackluster session as traders avoid big bets ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement. That said, the central bank’s massive liquidity injections have wiped off the cash crunch in the banking system, a move likely to cushion both the stock and bond markets.
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Maruti commentary has auto bulls on edge
India’s top carmaker offered little cheer to auto investors, forecasting just 1%-2% growth in car and SUV sales for this financial year ending in March. The dismal outlook reflects weak demand and comes when the sector faces US tariff risks. A gauge of auto stocks is down 6% so far in 2025, and flat year-on-year, with the near-term sluggishness likely to persist.
India better placed among EMs: Moody
Emerging markets reliant on cross-border trade face risks as President Trump prepares to roll out tariffs. Within this pack, India and Brazil are better off due to their deep domestic capital markets and low external vulnerabilities, say Moody’s analysts. They expect India’s growth to remain the highest among advanced and emerging G-20 nations, supported by tax measures and lower interest rates.
Macro outlook improving, focus on large-caps: JM Financial
India’s economic challenges may have bottomed out, say JM Financial analysts, citing easing inflation, crude prices, and interest rates. Other positive signs include a pick-up in government spending, above-average water reservoir levels, increasing rural wages, and lower tax rates. JM favors large-caps, noting that the one-year forward P/E of 18.6 is not far from the 25-year average of 17.2. Meanwhile, the broking firm rates mid- and small-cap stocks as expensive despite the recent correction.
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Analysts actions:
- HCL Tech Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1,700 rupees
- Tata Consumer Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 1,200 rupees
- LTIMindtree Raised to Add at Emkay Global; PT 5,150 rupees
Three great reads from Bloomberg today:
- Trump’s Tariff Plans Still in Limbo Ahead of Rose Garden Event
- Millennium, Citadel Extend 2025 Losses With a Volatile March
- Big Take: Wall Street’s Energy Policies Are Being Rewritten
And, finally..
The Reserve Bank of India and the government have wiped out a severe cash crunch, with banks parking surplus funds with the central bank for the first time since mid-December. Improved liquidity lowers overnight borrowing costs and aids reduction in the policy rate. The improvement follows the RBI’s over $70 billion cash injection since January and recent government spending, ensuring monetary actions take effect before a likely April 9 rate cut.
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—With assistance from Kartik Goyal, Chiranjivi Chakraborty and Bhaskar Dutta.
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