With the referendum on Switzerland’s controversial anti-immigration proposal soon approaching, new polling data shows that voter sentiment is shifting and experts warn the Winterthur knife attack could have an impact.
Swiss public opinion is shifting slightly ahead of a controversial immigration referendum, new polling data shows, but pollsters still feel the vote could go either way.
Ahead of the vote on June 14th, which will be a referendum on the far-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP) controversial ‘No to 10 million’ initiative capping the Swiss population, public opinion research from YouGov Switzerland shows that a slim majority of voters don’t agree with the proposal.
READ MORE: What exactly does the Swiss ‘no to 10 million’ anti-immigration proposal aim to do?
YouGov interviewed over 2,500 people between May 18-26 and the data shows a slight shift in public opinion but still within the margin of error.
According to YouGov’s findings: “Currently, 51 percent of those entitled to vote are against the proposal [a no vote], while 43 percent support a yes; 6 percent are still undecided.
“This means that the balance of power compared to the first mood barometer has changed slightly: The no camp has grown by 5 percentage points (from 46 to 51 percent) and is now just above the 50 percent mark, while the yes camp has slightly lost its approval (from 45 to 43 percent).”
As to predictions, YouGov sees a no vote as the most likely outcome but it could go either way: “A no thus appears more likely at the moment – even if both camps continue to move within the statistical uncertainty area, in which both rejection and acceptance remain possible in principle.”
Could knife attack in WInterthur alter vote?
However, experts say a recent event could sway the public opinion toward the ‘yes’ vote.
On May 28th – that is, after the survey was published – a Tunisian man, who obtained Swiss citizenship through naturalisation, attacked and injured three people in Winterthur, canton Zurich. Swiss officials described it as a terrorist attack.
Experts say this event could persuade some voters to support the SVP’s initiative.
According to political analyst Louis Perron, “Such news, just two weeks before the vote, obviously plays into the SVP’s hands.”
SVP parliamentary group leader Thomas Aeschi wasted no time turning the knife attack to the party’s advantage.
“This case shows that we have to look very closely at who we allow into Switzerland and to whom we grant citizenship,” he said.
‘No to 10 million’ initiative
Much has been said and written about the contentious initiative, spearheaded by the hard-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP).
We know that it seeks to drastically reduce the influx of foreigners to Switzerland, so that the country’s population doesn’t exceed the 10-million mark, which the populist party says will overburden key infrastructure, such as housing, public transport, the health system, and schools.
The proposal stipulates that “Switzerland’s permanent resident population must not exceed ten million people before 2050. From 2050 onwards, the Federal Council may adjust this limit annually.”
Currently, the country’s population stands at just over 9 million, including nearly 2.5 million foreign nationals – that is, over 27 percent of the population.
READ ALSO: What Switzerland’s new vote to limit immigration could mean
This comes as the initiative has garnered attention and criticism from abroad.
According to Christophe Grudler, the European Parliament’s permanent rapporteur for Switzerland, accepting the initiative would jeopardise the currently good relations between Bern and Brussels.
“The initiative is a covert attack on our relations,” he said.
Other members of the European Parliament (MEP) agree.
“From a European perspective, the free movement of persons is a central component of the bilateral approach,” said MEP Norbert Lins.
READ ALSO: ‘A covert attack’: EU lawmakers slam Swiss anti-immigration vote
