I was pretty proud of my 42-30-2 record from last season, but I’m still eager to improve on that this season.
Here are my best bets for Week 1 of the college football season, along with my weekly Bear Bytes.
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Last season’s game featured a 35-0 second half after a slow start and I don’t expect a slow start here. This Miami squad has the potential to be more talented than the one which played for the national title last year and I think the depth and the number of players completing for playing time will result in not taking the foot off the gas. Stanford has some offensive line issues as well and that probably isn’t good against this Miami defense. Something like 42-10 feels right.
Fallica’s Picks: Miami -24.5, Stanford Team Total Under 10.5
Old school Pac-12 after dark in Berkeley, where we could have two pretty good offenses — certainly QBs — on display. This number has flipped from Cal being favored, so I will grab the Golden Bears as a ‘dog here. I think the Bob Chesney narrative is driving that flip, which is fine. I think he’s going to do well at UCLA. But I think we’re overlooking that Cal might have the better roster right now, as Tosh Lupoi is coaching in his first game.
Fallica’s Pick: Cal +2
The Texans gave up 30 to Prairie View in their opener, but Kaden Anderson and Dylan Hines did what they wanted on offense. Tarleton is one of the best FCS teams out there and after last season’s collapse — especially on the offensive side of the ball — I’m not sure BG is better than it. And it’s not like there’s a big home field edge at all.
Fallica’s Pick: Tarleton St. +2.5
A couple of years back, the Boise squad which made the CFP hung around with the Ducks, but this is a better Oregon team and a worse Boise squad. After the way 2025 ended for the Ducks, and with so many of the key players returning for a title run, I expect Oregon to come out with some urgency. The Ducks’ defensive line should eat against an offensive line over which it has a huge edge.
Fallica’s Pick: Oregon -24.5
I can get behind a first-half play on the Longhorns, too. It’s almost too logical/easy to expect Texas will pull guys and ease up in the second half, but its roster is so deep and talented that I’m not sure it will matter.
Fallica’s Pick: Texas -29.5
The Brian Hartline era gets underway at USF, and it might be a tricky opener with a new-look squad against an FIU team that got better and built some culture under Willie Simmons last year. The Panthers have a couple of good backs, including Georgia Tech transfer Anthony Carrier, as well as a pretty experienced defense. FIU might not be good enough to get the outright win, but I’ll take north of two touchdowns.
Fallica’s Pick: FIU +14.5
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON ML
Cal +104
Tarleton State +114
Florida State +136
BEAR BYTES
No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
In his last 11 games as an underdog of six points or more, Jeff Brohm’s team has won eight of them outright.
Ball State @ No. 1 Ohio State
The last 50-point favorite in an FBS vs. FBS game was Michigan -53 vs. Hawaii in 2022.
No. 7 Miami @ Stanford
In the last three years, when favored by at least 20 points over another FBS team, Miami allowed 10, 7, 14, 14, 0 and 7 in those six games.
Northern Illinois @ No. 22 Iowa
This is the 11th game in which Kirk Ferentz has been favored by at least 28 points. Iowa allowed 7, 7, 10, 7, 0, 7, 0, 7, 7 and 10 points in the previous 10 games (6.2 PPG).
