China’s record trade surplus of almost $1tn in 2024, with a significant portion coming from the US. This surplus is expected to escalate trade tensions, particularly with the incoming Trump administration’s proposed tariffs.
Key Points
- China’s trade surplus with the rest of the world, especially the US, reached a record of almost $1tn in 2024, leading to tensions and trade war concerns.
- The front-loading of exports by Chinese producers ahead of anticipated trade war with the US contributed to the record trade surplus, prompting concerns about sustainability.
- China’s export boost and trade dynamics, including diversification of production and shifting export shares, pose challenges for Chinese policymakers amidst global trade uncertainties.
China’s Trade Surplus Hits Record
China reported a record-high trade surplus of $992 billion in 2024, according to customs data from its General Administration of Customs. This surplus represents a significant increase from previous years and highlights China’s strong export performance. Specifically, China’s trade surplus with the European Union was just under $240 billion, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total surplus. The surge in exports, which reached an all-time high of $3.6 trillion, has raised concerns about potential trade tensions, particularly as Donald Trump is set to re-enter the White House with promises of imposing higher tariffs on Chinese goods.
Chinese exports have surged due to concerns about the potential trade war, while imports have slowed. The country’s trade surplus with the US has increased, but the share of US exports in China’s shipments is gradually declining. China’s diversification of exports to southeast Asian countries is set to counter trade restrictions. However, economists predict that the export boost may diminish as tariffs take effect, posing a challenge for Chinese policymakers dealing with weak domestic demand.
China-Thailand Trade Surplus
China and Thailand have a significant trade relationship, with China being Thailand’s largest trading partner, accounting for 22% of Thailand’s total trade. In recent years, China has maintained a trade surplus with Thailand. For instance, in 2022, China had a large net trade surplus with Thailand in the exports of machines ($30 billion), metals ($11.2 billion), and chemical products ($7.02 billion). Meanwhile, Thailand had a large net trade surplus with China in the exports of plastics and rubbers ($8.34 billion), vegetable products ($8.04 billion), and machines ($7.38 billion). However, Thailand recorded a trade deficit of $794.4 million in October 2024, indicating that China continues to maintain a trade surplus with Thailand.
