The long-term direction of travel, however, remains firmly toward reduced coal consumption. Gang He, an associate professor at Stony Brook University, said coal’s share in China’s electricity generation was set to fall to about half by 2030 from 58% in 2024. “So while the 15th Five-Year Plan’s language of ‘peaking coal consumption’ may sound softer than Xi’s 2021 pledge to ‘reduce coal consumption’, it reflects a managed transition — recognizing coal’s diminishing but still critical role in maintaining grid stability as renewables expand rapidly,” he said.
