OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney invoked the turmoil of Brexit in warning that Alberta’s referendum proposal is “a very dangerous bluff” for Canada.
“People say it’s the start of a negotiation process, but for some people it’s the start of real separation,” Carney said Monday, referring to Premier Danielle Smith’s plan to hold a referendum in October on whether Alberta should pursue a formal separation vote.
“That is a very dangerous bluff,” Carney said, pointing to the turmoil that followed the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union a decade ago. The decision by almost 52 percent of British voters to leave the EU unleashed a wave of instability during the second half of Carney’s tenure as governor of the Bank of England, and sent populist ripples across the Atlantic when President Donald Trump unexpectedly won power months later.
Carney’s remarks, his most pointed criticism since Smith announced Thursday she would allow Albertans to vote on a prereferendum question, drew on his January Davos speech in which he urged solidarity and unity over what he called the “rupture” in the world’s multilateral order.
Carney had a front-row seat when then-British Prime Minister David Cameron’s gamble to allow a referendum backfired with consequences still being felt today.
“I saw firsthand what happened in the United Kingdom, when the view was, ’Vote for this, it will be soft, and then we’ll negotiate,’” Carney told reporters. “They’re still 10 years later trying to undo what people didn’t think they were voting for, but what they ended up having.”
Carney was asked whether he tried to dissuade Smith from going down a referendum path.
“The premier doesn’t always take my advice,” he replied.
Carney has expended domestic political capital in a bid to mend a decades-old rift between Ottawa and Alberta, by signing a memorandum of understanding with Smith’s government that could pave the way for a new oil pipeline from the province’s oilfields to the British Columbia coast.
The Alberta deal has drawn fire from B.C.’s government, some Indigenous groups and environmentalists, who accuse Carney of abandoning his climate credentials and betraying his former role as the United Nations special envoy on climate action and finance.
The Alberta MOU is also part of Carney’s “nation-building” major projects strategy, designed to kickstart construction of other large-scale energy and infrastructure projects, including greener options such as electricity and nuclear power, to strengthen the Canadian economy in the face of Trump’s economic threats.
Carney made clear Monday that the referendum question undermines the stability potential investors seek.
“Is it the democratic will of Albertans? Did they vote for this in the last provincial election? No, they didn’t. It wasn’t on the ballot paper, wasn’t in the mandates or platforms of the governing party … It is what it is.”
Carney said he would be “campaigning for Canadian unity,” stressing the upside of staying in a strong country that benefits all provinces.
“Being part of Canada brings many economic advantages, being part of our large market, being part of free trade agreements with one and a half billion people around the world,” Carney said.
“It’s more than economic benefits, it’s social,” Carney added.
“Canadians take care of each other. We take care of each other in our social programs, we take care of each other across different provinces, we look out for each other internationally. And this is a time where it’s particularly important.”
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and other party members have also pledged to campaign for Canadian unity, and several unofficial “stay” campaigns have launched. “I’m a strong Canadian federalist, a proud Albertan and a proud Canadian,” said Poilievre, who now represents an Alberta riding. “I want a strong Alberta within a united Canada, and all Conservatives will be campaigning for Canadian unity in Alberta.”
The Alberta question will dominate the final two weeks of Canada’s legislative sitting before a summer recess. Two Alberta Liberals were forced to address it on Monday at an announcement on an unrelated matter.
“Being Albertan and being Canadian, they’re just the same thing,” said Emergency Management Minister Eleanor Olszewski. “They’re intertwined. …. And the heartbreaking aspect is being now asked, at this point in time, to sort of choose between what aspect of my being that I am.”
Calgary Liberal MP Corey Hogan said the referendum push is not representative of the will of the majority of Albertans, pointing to two recent polls that show separatists drawing as little as 26 percent and 28 percent support.
“This is an agenda that’s being driven by a small group of Albertans. Some of them would have been separatists under any situation,” said Hogan.
Earlier this year, Carney warned the Trump White House not to meddle in the Alberta separatist movement after it was revealed that separatists had reached out to MAGA.
Smith also visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago in January 2025 before he returned to power.
