Black Friday: Big discounts, small profits
Keystone-SDA
Discounts, discounts and more discounts: in the days leading up to and following Black Friday, there’s a real gold-rush atmosphere among bargain hunters and the retail sector. However, an analysis by the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute (GDI) describes this US shopping trend as a ‘lose-lose’ situation.
On November 27, it’s that time of year again: the day of special offers is hitting shop shelves and online stores. Retailers are already courting shoppers eager to spend. It all kicked off last Wednesday with Singles’ Day. Ahead of the Christmas shopping season, Black Friday will be followed by Cyber Monday on November 30.
However, given the rise in the cost of living and creeping inflation, retailers are unlikely to see a spending spree this year. The shopping platform “blackfridaydeals.ch” expects turnover in the Swiss non-food retail sector to stagnate at CHF450 million ($535 million) on the day of the special offers. At least there is a ray of hope for the retail sector: this should halt the decline seen over the last two years.
According to a Demoscope survey commissioned by “blackfridaydeals.ch” in September 2026, which polled just over 1,000 people, shopping behaviour is also likely to shift further. In online retail, turnover is expected to rise by CHF10 million to CHF130 million. In high-street retail, a corresponding fall of CHF10 million to CHF320 million is anticipated.
Just under a third of those surveyed plan to go shopping on Black Friday itself. The 15- to 34-year-olds are the most keen to shop, with more than half planning to make a purchase. This customer segment primarily compares online offers and then buys wherever the price and value for money are best.
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Cautious response to Singles’ Day
Furthermore, the duration of this year’s discount battle is likely to be slightly shorter again. According to “blackfridaydeals.ch”, many Swiss retailers were not prepared for Singles’ Day.
Singles’ Day, which is primarily established in China, is hardly celebrated in Switzerland – and when it is, it takes place mainly online. Instead, retailers tend to focus on Black Friday or extend their promotions to last up to two weeks.
The GDI’s recently published analysis even refers to a “lose-lose” situation for retailers and customers alike. Generally speaking, more and more discount campaigns are being extended to a whole week or even the entire month of November. As a result, sales are spread out over time, “without November seeing stronger growth overall”, it states.
A survey of over 1,000 people in Switzerland conducted by the GDI shows that the appeal of the shopping event is waning. Around 32% of those surveyed described the Black Friday 2025 offers as “disappointing”, while only 10% found them “attractive”.
From the retail sector’s perspective, too, the overall picture is negative, it was reported. This is because customers are increasingly buying only products they would have purchased anyway. According to the GDI analysis, the estimated additional turnover of CHF196 million is offset by a loss in value of around CHF291 million.
Black Friday is therefore leading to falling profits while at the same time leaving customers increasingly disappointed, the institute concluded.
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Translated from German, reviewed by an English Department journalist.
