US duties, ‘20,000 jobs in Switzerland in worst-case scenario’
Keystone-SDA
The 39% tariffs imposed by the US could cost the Swiss economy up to 20,000 jobs, says UBS economist Thomas Veraguth.
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“The uncertainty is at all levels, but it is obviously very different from one company to another,” the expert emphasised in an interview broadcast on Swiss public television RTS. “And even on the US side there are many doubts, because there are many exceptions and the regulations are very complicated. For example, there are not only duties on final products, but also those that affect – to varying degrees – components.”
In such a fluid picture, UBS has nevertheless tried to assess the impact the situation will have on the Swiss labour market. “In the worst-case scenario, we estimated that there are around 20,000 jobs at risk,” explains the specialist with a degree from the University of St Gallen. “This is an important figure, which exceeds the experiences we have had in the past in other disputes or with other strains on the country’s international relations.”
“For the moment, the number of companies that need support, for example through reduced work, is still very low, but we have to wait to see how companies will react in the coming months: some are already talking about limiting investments on their Swiss production sites and reallocating their resources, for example by strengthening their presence in the US,” warns the professional with a background at Credit Suisse. “In the medium term, there could be secondary effects that are not directly linked to job losses, but rather to a decrease in certain investments.”
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In the meantime, unemployment will react in Switzerland to the global economic slowdown. But “we don’t have a recession scenario”, points out the French-speaking expert: the Swiss economy is very diversified. It is not, however, that we are getting worked up over nothing. “You have to take it very, very seriously, you have to keep fighting. Switzerland is more or less the 20th largest economy in the world, but it’s a small country in terms of population: you have to be very vigilant.”
With the US market becoming increasingly difficult and Europe once again struggling with the debt problem – much discussed at the moment is the situation in France – Switzerland must also look elsewhere. “The pole of growth is shifting towards the east,” argues Veraguth. “The heart of the world is moving towards Russia, China, India, the Middle East. China is ageing but increasing production in high value-added sectors, India has a very important future in the development of a new middle class, he notes. “But access to these markets is difficult and that’s why the Swiss and Europeans love to do business with the Americans, because as a general rule with the United States we understand each other well,” the economist concludes. “Today, however, it has become a bit more difficult,” he concludes.
Translated from Italian by DeepL/jdp
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