As talks continue, the USMCA will remain in place for another 10 years until its set expiry date of 2036.
In the meantime, the US, Canada and Mexico have three options:
The US is not expected to renew the trade deal, setting the stage for annual reviews, the Globe and Mail newspaper reported on Tuesday, citing an unnamed Canadian trade official.
While President Trump has made his displeasure with the USMCA known, business leaders in Canada believe an outright withdrawal is the least likely outcome.
“Everyone is hopeful that won’t be the case,” Darby said, adding that there is a recognition by US trade negotiators that the pact has benefited all three countries.
He acknowledged, however, that rolling annual reviews are not ideal as they would leave Canadian businesses navigating damaging uncertainty.
The final decision, he added, likely rests with the US president.
Hoekstra echoed that sentiment, telling CTV that the future of North American free trade is in the hands of Trump and Carney.
Trump’s recent comments on USMCA have been contradictory. He has said he is “not looking to renew it”. He has also said that he is “open” to leaving the pact the place.
Carney has said that it is “no secret” Trump dislikes the USMCA. He noted, however, that US trade negotiators have acknowledged the pact’s “underlying structure” was solid.
“What I have seen with the president is you’re not close to making a deal – and then you make a deal,” he told reporters recently.
