On Thursday night, huge breaking news came out of the MLB: New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his ribs that will keep him out for the majority of the summer.
Re-imaging will take place in four to six weeks for the three-time American League MVP. But this injury assures that his fourth MVP will have to wait another year, at the very least.
While the loss of Judge will certainly make it more difficult for the Yankees to capture the American League East, I want to focus on the MVP race from a betting perspective.
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Earlier in the season, Judge’s teammate Ben Rice was someone I identified as having value to win this award at 150-1.
While there is still a long way to go to cash that ticket, the odds on Rice have slowly adjusted over the course of the season, dipping now to as low as 4-1 with news of Judge’s looming absence.
Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez are the only players with shorter odds than Rice, as both are currently +135 and +150, respectively.
Prior to being injured, Judge was around even money to win this award for a third consecutive year.
With Judge out of the conversation, who is the best player to bet on right now?
As much as I loved Rice at long odds, 4-1 is not worth a bet, in my opinion. Witt and Alvarez also don’t provide enough value, especially considering they both play on teams with losing records.
The best number I think right now is Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz at 11-1.
Kurtz burst onto the Major League Baseball scene last summer as a rookie, crushing 36 home runs in just 420 at-bats and winning AL Rookie of the Year in a landslide. Could Kurtz add another piece of hardware in his sophomore season?
So far this year, he is hitting .284 with 11 home runs and 43 RBIs, but his prolific homer-to-at-bat ratio last year has proven that he can hit the long ball in bunches.
Getting to 40 dingers is certainly not out of the question for Kurtz, who has an eye-popping on-base percentage of .437 entering Friday’s games — a mark that leads all of Major League Baseball with room to spare.
With four months left in the season, this is enough of a wide-open race where getting relatively long odds is something I would look for when making a bet.
Kurtz plays in anonymity in Sacramento, but the numbers suggest he is a legitimate MVP candidate and is worth a shot to win it.
PICK: Nick Kurtz (+1100) to win AL MVP
