Bo Nix tried his best to throw a pick last week.
The Broncos’ rookie quarterback threw a handful of passes that hit the hands of Bills’ defenders, including an interception that was overturned in the final minutes. Those are the worst ones, the right bets that lose.
We still went 3-1 last weekend, and now it’s onto the NFL divisional round, where I believe there are three wagers worth making. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-teamers. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (47-44, -1.2 units)
Commanders @ Lions (-9, O/U 55.5)
Let me start by saying the Lions should score a lot. It’s a great matchup for Detroit’s offense against Washington’s defense, and the Commanders will struggle to slow “Sonic and Knuckles.” That said, Jayden Daniels is a weapon and his weapons are good enough to get into the end zone, too. I love Terry McLaurin against Detroit’s corners and think Dan Quinn’s relatively new fourth-down aggression works in our favor. And the Commanders have no choice but to play four downs if they fall behind as expected.
PICK: Commanders team total Over 22.5 points
The Rams are morphing into a public darling after upsetting the Vikings, and now bettors are excited about taking a Super Bowl-winning quarterback who’s getting almost a touchdown. I understand that, but don’t agree with it. Philadelphia’s defense is the best unit on the field, and it’s not close. The Rams will also lose the fight in the trenches, plus there’s a lot to like about Vic Fangio’s D lining up against an offense without much speed. Saquon Barkley and that vaunted rushing attack just need to protect the football.
PICK: Eagles (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Ravens (-1.5, O/U 51.5) @ Bills
I wrote about this game earlier in the week. Baltimore plays to an extremely high power rating and oddsmakers love, love, love the Ravens. They also loved them last year when they were 5-point home favorites against Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Whoops. I always prefer to lean into great teams playing in their own building at this time of the season. I believe offensive coordinator Joe Brady has some tricks up his sleeve, and I’ll be rooting for Buffalo to take an early lead and hoping Baltimore abandons the run.
PICK: Bills (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points, or win outright
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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