Last February, almost immediately after the dust from Super Bowl LVIII settled, the FOX Sports editorial team tabbed Geoff Schwartz, Jason McIntyre and yours truly to pick a team to win this year’s Super Bowl.
Geoff naturally and confidently went with the Kansas City Chiefs, J-Mac leaned into the San Francisco 49ers, and I dove a little deeper down the board to poach 20-1 odds on the Green Bay Packers and quarterback Jordan Love.
My logic was simple: avoid Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson and select a longer shot from the NFC. The Packers seemed to be most logical after Detroit, Philadelphia and San Francisco, and I chose Cheese over the trendier likes of Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas and Los Angeles.
I never considered the Minnesota Vikings.
Whoops.
“Minnesota is one of the biggest upgrades in power ratings,” Betsperts director of content and seasoned NFL bettor Andy Molitor told FOX Sports.
“You had to start low with the most important position being such a question mark. And it was a question mark trending downward. We had two data points on Sam Darnold and they both weren’t good. He wasn’t even an NFL starting quarterback and the Vikings planned on starting rookie J.J. McCarthy.
“They remind me a lot of last year’s San Francisco team. You look at the roster and all the weapons are there, and the defense is pretty good, but none of that matters if the quarterback sucks. So you start low and keep upgrading if the guy plays well and that’s exactly what’s happened with Minnesota.”
Fast-forward to late December. Minnesota now controls its destiny to the NFC’s No. 1 overall seed and the Packers are the next obstacle in the way. The longtime division rivals meet Sunday in America’s Game of the Week.
You can watch live on FOX Sports and the FOX Sports App.
Las Vegas bookmakers opened Minnesota as a 1.5-point home favorite, but respected money has driven the line to mostly a pick ‘em (PK) in the market, with a few shops sitting at Green Bay -1. It’s not every day you see a football team with a 13-2 record as a betting underdog in its own building.
“I have them basically equal on a neutral,” Molitor said. “My number for this game is Minnesota -1/-1.5 and the more [Deep Dive co-host Drew Dinsick] and I talked about it, we realized we didn’t want to bet into the game.
“It’s the best game of the week, and we’ll probably sit out.”
Discipline should always be applauded.
Can Packers pull off upset vs. Vikings in NFL Week 17?
Personally, I think Minnesota is a different animal at The Death Star. I’ve watched a handful of games there and the home-field advantage is still a smidge underrated. Many of those fans are drinking vodka from a horn at sunrise and the energy rattles off the walls throughout the game.
You can’t hear yourself think on opposing third downs.
“As of now, we’ll need the Vikings to win,” one veteran Las Vegas bookmaker told FOX Sports. “That means Green Bay will probably get the money. That’s just the way it’s gone for us this season. It’s body blow after body blow.
“We’ll definitely need it to stay ‘Under’ 48, too.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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