Are you ready for a Thursday Night Football showdown featuring the Chargers and the Broncos?
I certainly am. But beware, because there’s been some line movement.
The Chargers were favored by three points at home, but those points are gone. The Denver money hit the market in the middle of the night on Wednesday.
The last meeting was in Week 6, and the Chargers dominated. They led 20-0 at the half and 23-0 heading into the fourth quarter before some garbage-time action from Denver made the game look closer than it was.
The Broncos had 83 yards entering the fourth quarter before three drives in the hurry-up offense racked up 233 yards.
All season, Bo Nix has shredded zone defenses, but he’s struggled when facing man defense. The Chargers’ flexibility under Jesse Minter did a great job of disguising the defense in the earlier meeting, and Nix ended up tucking and running six times for 61 yards.
One thing to note is that the Chargers had the early bye.
Their off week was in early October, right before the game against the Broncos. In recent weeks, they have looked like an exhausted team, scoring only 17 points in the last three games. Incidentally, they also haven’t had J.K. Dobbins in those three games (the Chargers have 12 players on injured reserve).
The toughest part of this handicap is taking into consideration just how beat up LA is. Quentin Johnston has an ankle issue, and Will Dissly has a shoulder problem.
The Broncos had their bye two weeks ago, they only have four players on IR and they’ve won four straight — but drill down on those opponents.
You’ll find that three were at home and those wins were against teams that could be described as middling — Falcons, Raiders, Browns and Colts. And Nix hasn’t been great in the last two games, throwing five interceptions and registering two of his lowest-rated QBR games of the season.
If you feel the Broncos are going to win this, they have an edge on the sixth seed and get to avoid the Bills or Chiefs in the first round. The Chargers might play desperately because if they lose and the Bengals win, Cincinnati has a legit shot of surpassing them for the final playoff spot.
And by “desperately,” I’m talking trick plays, aggressive fourth-down calls — all of it.
If you don’t like picking a side here, consider teasing the Broncos up to 8.5 or 9 and paring them with a favorite such as the Bengals, who would be down to 1.
PICK: Chargers (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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