Are you ready to bet Army–Navy?
It’s the only football game every year when American bettors care more about the total than the point spread. Last year’s total opened around O/U 34 and closed as low as 27.5 in the market. The final score was 17-11.
Numbers matter!
I’ve got two college football wagers, two NFL bets and a moneyline parlay this coming weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-teamers. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (34-35, -4.4 units)
No. 22 Army (-6.5, O/U 39) vs. Navy
Last year we bet 1Q Under 6.5 and sweat it all the way down to the wire. It was scoreless after the first frame and a touchdown was scored in the first minute of the second quarter. Whew. This year, I’m going Over in the first half. Bryson Daily and Blake Horvath make up the most talented signal-caller tandem I can ever remember in the game’s history and I think we get fireworks early.
PICK: 1st half Over 19.5 points scored
UC Davis @ South Dakota (-5.5, O/U 57.5)
There’s been very interesting line movement all week on this FCS playoff tilt. South Dakota opened -6.5 last Sunday and Las Vegas sportsbooks wrote nothing but UC Davis bets early. The line got as low as -3.5 before it was completely shoved back to South Dakota -5.5. The good ol’ okey-doke. One respected bettor told me his true number is -7, so I’ll bite.
PICK: South Dakota (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points
Buccaneers @ Chargers (-3, O/U 45.5)
The banged-up Chargers are battling, sure, but now they’ve got to win by margin with minimal offense? They mustered 10 first downs against Atlanta and won because Kirk Cousins stunk, then erased a 13-0 halftime deficit against Kansas City and almost won that game. Jim Harbaugh is certainly coaching his squad up, but there’s no way I’m laying a field goal.
PICK: Buccaneers (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Should the Cowboys be embarrassed of being underdogs vs. Panthers?
Bills @ Lions (-2.5, O/U 54.5)
I wrote about this game earlier this week. It’s no secret Dan Campbell’s man-to-man, high-safety defense allows dual-threat quarterbacks to thrive. Just ask former Bears quarterback Justin Fields, who rushed for 450 yards in five meetings against Detroit. MVP frontrunner Josh Allen should go bananas and he’ll likely have Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid back in the fold.
PICK: Bills (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points, or win outright
Chiefs (-4, O/U 43) @ Browns
Cowboys @ Panthers (-2.5, O/U 43)
If one more person tells me the Chiefs are frauds, I’ll lose my mind. The overreactions are nuts. They were 11-point favorites three weeks ago at Carolina and now they’re only 4-point road chalk against a 3-10 Browns team? Stop. Give me Kansas City to win and I’ll wheel it with Carolina against a defeated Dallas team that’s already booking tee times.
PICK: Chiefs ML and Panthers ML parlay (+150)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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