Competitiveness: Zug in the lead, Ticino and Graubünden in the lower rankings
Keystone-SDA
Zug, Basel-City and Zurich top the list of Swiss cantons with the most competitive economies, according to a UBS study. Graubünden sits at the bottom of the rankings.
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The Cantonal Competitiveness Indicator (CCI) is based on 57 parameters that give information on the long-term economic expansion prospects of a region.
The best canton is awarded a score of 100, the others follow proportionally. Those with low CCI values do not necessarily have limited absolute potential, but simply below-average opportunities compared to other cantons.
The analysis shows a clear gap between the top three, which remain in the same positions as in the previous analysis of 2023. Vaud (78), Aargau (77), Geneva (73), Basel-Country (73), Lucerne (72), Schwyz (71) and Schaffhausen (68) complete the top ten.
Ticino climbs to 20th place, gaining one position compared to two years ago, with an ICC of 52. It collects points mainly for its economic structure (74), but what weighs negatively is the labour market, where it is penultimate with a score of 5.
Similarly to the top, the bottom of the Swiss ranking remains unchanged: the worst values are scored by Graubünden (44), Valais (44) and Jura (33). Graubünden is penalised by geography, which translates into problems of accessibility and a limited catchment area for companies.
Most of the changes since the last survey in 2023 are mainly due to developments in the labour market and the cost environment. Over the next ten years, the working population will decrease or stagnate in more than half of the cantons, which will have a significant impact on their competitiveness.
Inter-cantonal tax competition has lost some of its importance due to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) minimum taxation. According to UBS experts, however, cantonal tax rates remain decisive for most companies.
An attractive tax environment therefore remains a key factor in the choice of location. However, the cost environment is characterised not only by taxes, but also, increasingly, by housing shortages, rising rents and higher electricity prices.
The research also analyses the cantons’ dependence on exports. Globally, industrial policy is experiencing a renaissance, accompanied by increasing protectionism, as evidenced by the latest country-specific customs duties introduced by the US government.
This development poses a considerable risk for export-oriented cantons in particular: Nidwalden and Neuchâtel are particularly affected, as 44% and 38% of their exports respectively go to the US.
By contrast, Zurich, Vaud, Geneva, Zug and Basel-City show the greatest resilience against trade barriers. In the ranking of the least affected, Ticino is 12th and Graubünden is 14th.
However, the competitiveness observed at cantonal level often conceals regional differences that are sometimes even marked. A map published in the study shows, for example, that the Lugano area has better prospects than the Bellinzona and Mendrisiotto areas, which in turn appear much better placed than the valleys further north in Ticino.
A similar phenomenon can also be observed in Graubünden, with Chur more dynamic than other districts.
Translated from Italian by DeepL/mga
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