An initiative by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP) to curb immigration once the country’s population reaches a certain threshold may seem extreme, but polls show it has a chance of passing.
The party has gathered enough signatures to bring its controversial initiative, called “No to Switzerland with 10 million people,” to the ballot box.
It calls for the Swiss government to stop the influx of foreigners when the country’s permanent resident population exceeds 9.5 million (it currently exceeds 9 million), which demographers expect within the next decade.
This is a necessary step, the SVP politicians argue, because the steadily increasing number of foreign residents puts additional burden on Switzerland’s already over-stretched infrastructure, including housing, public transport, schools, and health system.
READ ALSO: What Switzerland’s new vote to limit immigration could mean
The referendum will take place in 2026, but a new nationwide poll indicates that, far from being rejected outright, the proposal is likely to be accepted – even if by a very narrow majority of voters.
What exactly does it reveal?
The poll, conducted on behalf of the Swiss Trade Union Federation (USS) by the Sotomo Research Institute, shows that 48 percent of participants are in favour, or somewhat in favour, of imposing such a limit on immigration, while 45 percent would vote against it, and 7 percent are undecided.
The fate of this referendum is therefore in the hands of that 7-percent segment of the population that is still unsure about how they will vote.
These figures are worrying because they show an “unusual level of support” for the right-wing issue, according to Michael Hermann, a political scientist who carried out the poll.
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Survey results must be ‘taken very seriously’
Based on his experience, the ‘pro’ poll results during referendum campaigns decline with time : voters, initially supportive of many causes, reject them after careful consideration.
However, this may not be the case with this particular initiative: the almost 50-percent support must be “taken very seriously,” because immigration remains an issue on which voters already have clear positions, Hermann said.
As the poll further demonstrates, around 60 percent of those surveyed are in favour of limiting the population, even if many of then consider the SVP initiative “too extreme.”
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Worst-case scenario
If the proposal does end up being approved, it will spell a disaster not only for Switzerland’s economy, which relies heavily on foreign employees to fill shortages in the labour market, but also on the country’s relations with the European Union.
That’s because it would violate the terms of the Free Movement of Persons Agreement that has been in effect for more than 20 years, and which gives EU citizens unlimited access to Swiss jobs.
READ ALSO: Foreign workers from Europe judged essential for Switzerland
