But more recent polls have shown the gap narrowing significantly as decision day gets closer.
On Wednesday, a poll of 4,000 people by AtlasIntel put the two candidates level on 48 percent each. Crucially, AtlasIntel included a sample of the large Romanian diaspora population, among whom Simion is hugely popular.
Then, on Thursday, Dan took the lead in a poll for the first time, with 52 percent to Simion’s 48 percent. That survey, by independent research institute IRSOP, canvassed some 950 people.
Many Romanians are reluctant to say how they will vote, with some fearing repercussions. Given the high level of cynicism regarding the process, and the fact the polls previously underestimated support for right-wingers, are such surveys truly reliable?
“Yes, they can be trusted,” said Radu Magdin, a former Romanian government adviser who is now CEO of Smartlink Communications. “It’s going to be really tight on Sunday. It’s highly unlikely that Simion wins with a margin. Either he wins close or even it’s a high possibility that Nicușor Dan catches up and wins, based on an increased participation.”
The air war
Romania’s election has been fought largely on TV and on social media. Neither of the two candidates spent much time on the ground, touring the country, in the final days, and there has been no pressing the flesh or holding rallies in key constituencies. Simion hasn’t even been in the country.
