In this week’s Inside Spain we look at how a government report has painted a very dire but real picture of what would happen to Spain if it reduced immigration by a third over the next 50 years.
There’s this hilarious and very telling skit by Spanish comedian José Mota that’s doing the rounds on social media.
In it he plays a Spanish Prime Minister who is discussing with his cabinet members the immediate deportation of all of Spain’s immigrants, just as Vox actually proposed last year.
“Okay, so the plan is to kick them all out,” Mota says.
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“Hang on, not the Colombian lady that cares for my parents, because what would I do otherwise?” one cabinet member exclaims.
“The immigrants that take care of the elderly can stay,” the Spanish premier says, “but all the rest – out!”
“What about the waiters?” another politician asks, “I have a restaurant which can’t survive without staff”.
“The ones in hospitality can stay, but all the rest out,” Mota repeats.
The gag continues until the Spanish PM gives a press conference informing reporters that his government will kick out all immigrants “except for those working as carers, those who pay taxes, those working in hospitality, the builders, the footballers, the ones working under the table so we can pay them less, the migrants working in the fields, the ones setting up restaurants with cheap tasty food, the bachata dance teachers…”
So what would actually happen to Spain if there was a drastic reduction in immigration?
This is the question that a new report by the Spanish government’s National Office for Foresight and Strategy (ONPE) attempted to answer for the first time this week.
The report calculates the impact of reducing migration flows by 30 percent until 2075.
Experts analysed various indicators – from population and labour, to taxes and welfare – and the outlook was grim on all fronts.
To begin with, the Spanish population would shrink to 40 million inhabitants rather than the current 49 million. That’s 15 million fewer people than if migration stayed as it is now.
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The majority of this lost population would be people of working age. This would mean that Spain’s potential workforce would drop from 33 million in 2075 to 24 million, barely two million more than it has now.
Agriculture, hospitality, education, and healthcare would be hardest hit, four sectors which are fundamental to Spain’s productive fabric.
This population loss would cause the closure of 220,000 farms, approximately 30 percent of the total operating in Spain. And with less production, a rise in the price of fruits and vegetables would be a given.
Something similar would happen in the hospitality industry. The ONPE estimates that 89,000 bars could disappear without migrant waiters and other staff who represent a significant portion of the workforce in this sector.
In terms of healthcare, 64,000 specialists would cease to exist. Despite the potential population decline, doctors would still have to treat on average 4 percent more patients. Without the current rates of immigration, the number of caregivers would also be 28 percent lower.
This is particularly worrying keeping in mind Spain’s increasingly aging population, with more than 2.7 million elderly people expected to require daily care by 2075.
The impact on education in Spain would also be catastrophic, resulting in 50,000 fewer classrooms – 32,000 in primary schools and another 18,000 in secondary schools.
READ ALSO: The myths surrounding Spain’s mass regularisation of migrants
As for the macroeconomic data, the most obvious effect would be on Spain’s Gross Domestic Product, which in 2075 would be 22 percent lower than if immigration continues at the rate of recent years, according to the ONPE report.
Logically, fewer workers would mean smaller contributions to the Spanish Social Security pot.
So where’s the money going to come from to pay for all those pensions? From the pockets of those who would get to stay in Spain, of course. Each worker would have to contribute approximately €2,000 more each year.
Spain would have to increase its corporate tax revenue by 14 percent or its VAT revenue by 6 percent.
So there you have it. Even though many in Spain long for the old days where the only surnames you’d hear would be Díaz, Rodríguez and García, an España without enough new blood to work and pay taxes would clearly be weaker.
You only have to look at what happened to ‘Empty Spain’ to realise that.
READ ALSO: Foreigners give ‘Empty Spain’ a new lease of life
