The 39-percent customs duties on US-bound exports could lead to massive layoffs in Switzerland, a new study reveals. But which sectors will be worst hit?
A new UBS study estimates that up to 20,000 employees could their lose their jobs as a result of Donald Trump’s tariffs, which had hit Switzerland on August 1st.
“The strong export orientation of the Swiss economy makes the country particularly vulnerable to trade barriers – although the degree of vulnerability varies significantly from canton to canton,” the UBS report states.
Where are the job losses expected to be heaviest?
Export-heavy sectors such as metallurgy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, medical instruments, and watchmaking are particularly at risk.
Three cantons in particular have the highest share of exports destined for the US market and will, therefore, be most affected by job losses,
They are Basel, the hub of the pharmaceutical industry, as well as Neuchâtel and Jura, the centre of watchmaking.
The cantons of Geneva and Vaud, on the other hand, would be less affecred, as their exports “are less sensitive to the American market,” according to UBS economist Thomas Veraguth.
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More US-inflicted damage
This news comes at the same time as another dim forecast.
The Swiss economy will likely grow more slowly than previously expected in 2026, due precisely to the US tariffs.
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is now expecting a weaker growth.
“An updated economic scenario from SECO shows that, as a result of higher US import tariffs, the Swiss economy is likely to grow more slowly than previously expected, particularly in 2026,” it said in a statement.
READ ALSO: Swiss economy set to slow and it’s all thanks to Trump
