UN weather agency expects new temperature record soon
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A new global temperature record is likely to be set in the next five years. It is also becoming increasingly likely that global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva.
To date, 2024 is considered to be the year with the highest average temperature ever measured. In its forecast for the period from 2025 to 2029, the WMO expects this record to be broken at least once with an 80% probability.
According to the forecast, global warming will probably exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius on a five-year average by 2029. It was compiled under the leadership of the British Met Office using climate models from 15 institutions.
What is the threat if it is permanently too warm?
At the UN climate summit in Paris in 2015, it was decided to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial period. This target is now considered almost impossible to achieve. The WMO assumes that this limit will already have been breached by 2024. However, the target will only be officially missed if the value is exceeded for decades.
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Every tenth of a degree of warming already contributes to heatwaves, extreme rainfall, drought, ice melt, warmer oceans and rising sea levels, the organisation warned. “Unfortunately, this WMO report shows no sign of easing in the coming years,” said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Director-General on climate change. “This means that our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet will be increasingly negatively impacted,” she said.
Wetter weather in Northern Europe and South Asia
According to the WMO, above-average seasonal precipitation is expected in several regions in the coming years, including Northern Europe and South Asia. The Amazon, on the other hand, is likely to become drier. According to the forecast, the Arctic region around the North Pole will warm up more than three times faster than the rest of the world in the winter months.
In order to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees in the long term, emissions of climate-damaging greenhouse gases would have to fall quickly and sharply – by at least 43% by 2030. In addition, large quantities of greenhouse gases would have to be removed from the atmosphere.
Translated from German by DeepL/jdp
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