Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariff proposal is rattling global markets and intensifying fears of a broader economic slowdown in the second half of 2025.
Key takeaways
- Trump’s tariff plan is fueling inflation fears and raising the risk of a U.S. economic slowdown in late 2025.
- The Eurozone and China face mounting trade-related headwinds, with central banks expected to loosen policy in response.
- Thailand’s competitiveness and tourism recovery remain vulnerable amid uneven tariff negotiations and weak Chinese arrivals.
The move, which targets key trade partners including the European Union, China, and ASEAN nations, is poised to stoke inflationary pressures at home while threatening already fragile recoveries abroad.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its July 29–30 meeting, as policymakers grapple with conflicting signals: a jump in headline inflation to 2.7% year-over-year in June, the highest in four months, alongside weaker core inflation and softening economic momentum.
Retail sales rebounded modestly in June, rising 0.6% month-on-month after a contraction the previous month, but analysts caution that consumer sentiment may erode quickly if tariffs push up prices.
Krungsri Research anticipates that the Fed will resume rate cuts later this year, possibly 2 to 3 times, should trade-related uncertainty and federal spending cuts further drag on growth.
“The risk of stagflation is rising,” one analyst noted, pointing to Trump’s proposed 20–50% tariff hike set to take effect after August 1 if trade renegotiations fail.
Europe Faces Tariff Fallout Amidst Sluggish Growth
Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone is bracing for fallout from Washington’s protectionist pivot. Trump’s threat of a minimum 15–20% tariff on European imports has jolted markets and undermined business confidence.
A Krungsri Research study suggests a 20% tariff could slash European exports by 1.42%, with textiles, metals, and electronics sectors suffering the brunt.
While the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index improved slightly in July, rising to 36.1, underlying indicators remain fragile. Core inflation held steady at 2.3%, and labor market signals, slowing wage growth, fewer vacancies, and rising unemployment, suggest mounting pressure on households.
The European Central Bank is now expected to deliver two additional rate cuts this year to buffer the region against deteriorating trade conditions.
China’s Resilience Tested as Tariff Truce Nears Expiry
In China, robust first-half growth of 5.3% year-over-year exceeded expectations, supported by government stimulus and preemptive export activity. However, momentum is waning. Retail sales slowed to 4.8% in June, and new home sales plunged a staggering 22.8%, exposing the fragility of the real estate sector. Fixed asset investment also decelerated, highlighting deeper structural imbalances.
The looming expiration of a temporary tariff truce with the U.S. in August raises fresh concerns. Any escalation in the trade war could derail China’s delicate recovery, just as excess capacity and weak domestic investment cast shadows over the second half of the year.
Thailand Eyes Tariff Talks as Tourism Recovery Stalls
Southeast Asia is not immune to the reverberations. Thailand, heavily reliant on exports and tourism, finds itself in a precarious position. While Vietnam and Indonesia secured U.S. tariff reductions to 19–20%, Thailand continues to face a steeper 36% levy, jeopardizing its competitiveness.
Thai authorities are scrambling to mitigate the fallout. The Board of Investment (BOI) has unveiled a five-pronged program to bolster domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on vulnerable markets.
Investment promotion applications surged in Q1, driven by the digital and electronics sectors, but investor confidence remains brittle amid unresolved trade tensions.
Tourism, another pillar of Thailand’s economy, is faltering. Foreign arrivals fell 5.6% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, with Chinese tourists, once the top source, recovering slowly.
Daily arrivals remain far below pre-pandemic levels, hindered by safety concerns and rising regional competition. Krungsri Research has downgraded its full-year forecast for tourist arrivals to 34 million, down from a previous estimate of 36.5 million.
Global Economic Outlook: Walking a Tightrope
Trump’s tariff revival has injected new volatility into an already fragile global economy. While proponents argue the measures will bolster domestic industries, economists warn that the costs, rising prices, supply chain disruption, and retaliatory measures, may outweigh the benefits.
With central banks constrained by competing pressures, rising inflation and slowing growth, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty.
The months ahead will test the resilience of global economies, the flexibility of monetary policy, and the durability of trade partnerships shaped over decades.
“Trade wars are not easy to win,” one senior economist warned. “They may well be easy to start, but much harder to end without collateral damage.”
