The United States is India’s largest export destination and second-largest trading partner after China. Over the past decade, trade relations between these two major global economies have witnessed significant improvement. Data available from CMIE shows that India’s total trade with the US has surged 92% in the last 10 years to $118.3 billion in FY24 from $61.5 billion in FY14. Now that the US elected Donald Trump as the new president after the elections in November 2024. It is interesting to see how the Bilateral trade will grow under his presidency. Here is the trade landscape for the last ten years between the two countries and under which president the trade growth was higher.
India’s total exports to the world’s largest economy nearly doubled in the past 10 years.
India’s exports to the United States held steady in 2023-24 (FY24) at $77.53 billion, a slight dip from the previous year’s high of $78.40 billion. While In the last 10 years, India’s exports have surged 98% to $77.5 billion in FY24 from $39.1 billion in FY14. The sustained high export levels reflect India’s solid trade relationship with the U.S., with the country remaining a key destination for Indian goods, including engineering products, chemicals, and electronics.
However, during President Trump’s tenure from January 2017 to January 2021 (majorly FY18 to FY21) India’s exports to the US surged 22% in four years. While under President Biden regime India’s exports to the US jumped 51% in just three years (as data for FY25 is not available yet).
India’s Export Composition to the USA, 2023-24: Engineering and Chemicals Lead
India’s exports to the United States in the 2023-24 period showcased a diversified portfolio, totalling $77.5 billion in various sectors. Engineering goods topped the list, bringing in $16.3 billion, followed by chemicals and related products at $12.8 billion. Electronic goods also saw significant export value at $10.5 billion, while gems and jewellery contributed $9.9 billion. Petroleum products, though lower, added $5.8 billion. Other products collectively accounted for $22.2 billion, underscoring the range of India’s exports to the U.S.
India’s Imports from the U.S. Decline in 2023-24 after Recent Growth
India’s imports from the United States experienced a slight decline in FY24, totalling $40.76 billion compared to $50.84 billion in FY23. This decrease follows a period of consistent growth from 2017-18 onward, with a significant jump from $35.75 billion in 2019-20 to $43.35 billion in 2021-22. The 2023-24 dip may reflect shifting trade dynamics and changing global economic conditions, with import levels still significantly above pre-2020 levels.
Overall in the last 10 years India’s imports have surged 82% to $40.76 billion in FY24 from $22.4 billion in FY14. While under president Trump’s rule from FY18 to FY21 India’s imports from the US surged 29% in four years. On the other hand under President Biden, India’s imports jumped 42% in three years.
India’s Key Imports from the U.S. in FY24: Engineering and Petroleum Lead
In the fiscal year 2023-24, India’s imports from the United States were led by engineering goods, totalling $8.1 billion, followed closely by petroleum crude and products at $7.8 billion. Ores and minerals contributed $4.5 billion, while chemicals and related products accounted for $4.3 billion. Imports of electronic goods stood at $4.25 billion, and pearls, precious, and semiprecious stones added $3.5 billion. Other products collectively reached $8.2 billion, reflecting India’s broad import spectrum from the U.S.
The US focusing on supply chain diversification due to the “China plus one” policy and India’s contributions, particularly in technology, innovation, and key sectors like IT, AI, and semiconductors, are poised for substantial growth. According to Indian government estimates the bilateral trade between India and the US is expected to surge to nearly $500 to $600 billion in 2030, more than four times its current value of $118 billion.
However, the US election results will play a pivotal role in shaping the future trajectory of India-US trade relations.
