European leaders sending their troops to Greenland has – writes political columnist John Lichfield – called Donald Trump’s bluff when it comes to military conflict. Instead the continent faces the prospect of a long and brutal trade war.
Neville Chamberlain said in 1938 that there was no reason for British or French soldiers to die for Czechoslovakia. Nazi Germany’s threat to seize Czech territory was “a quarrel in a faraway country by people of whom we know nothing”.
Who is ready to die for Greenland? More to the point, is there anything that France or Britain – or Europe as a whole – can do to prevent the Nazi tribute act in the White House from seizing the giant Danish territory?
In pure military terms, not really. France has the most capable military in western Europe but even its forces would be no match for the United States.
READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: How powerful is the French military?✎
The French military is configured to fight only short, smart, tactical battles. It has far fewer warplane and tanks than it had at the start of the century and poor stocks of rockets, artillery shells and small ammunition.
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According to one assessment, the French air force – 250 warplanes, compared to 374 two decades ago – has the capacity to fight intensively for no more than a couple of weeks. Its Mirages and Rafales are among the most advanced fighting aircraft in the world but they do not have the numbers or ammunition to sustain a long air-war.
And yet there are reasons to believe that the Europeans have already won the first military confrontation with Donald Trump.
France, Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Finland sent a handful of their troops to join a Danish “exploratory” manoeuvre in Greenland last week.
Since then Trump has threatened to bombard the eight countries with trade tariffs; he has not repeated (nor has he withdrawn) his outlandish menace to invade the territory of an ally.
I believe that the Europeans called his bluff. Hence his fury.
Neither the US military nor the US Congress is happy about the idea of the Land of the Free turning into a rogue state by invading a fellow Nato country. By placing a few Nato soldiers in harm’s way, the Europeans made it even less likely that the US chiefs of staff would send a small invasion force to the world’s largest island.
Officially, the troops were there to reassure Trump by preparing a stronger defence of Greenland against Russia and, er, checks notes, China. Piffle. Everyone knows that they were there as a warning to Trump, not to Moscow or Beijing.
Having won the phoney war, can the Europeans win the trade war? That will be much tougher.
Each day Trump pushes out the boundaries of absurdity. Is Europe dealing with a fascist or a bullying fool? It is no longer easy to say.
He must have Greenland because he was denied the Nobel prize. He will impose 200 percent tariffs on French wine and Champagne because President Emmanuel Macron refuses to join his anti-United Nations “peace council” – sole proprietor D. Trump, with a $1 billion entry fee.
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Russia is a threat to Greenland (less so Ukraine) but Vladimir Putin has been offered a seat on the “peace” council.
Trump publishes a faked picture of the European leaders’ visit to the Oval Office last year in which he has inserted a map of North America with Greenland AND Canada covered by the Stars and Stripes
Macron sends a conciliatory, private note to the White House addressed to “My friend”. Trump publishes it without comment – presumably to support his assertion that the Europeans will cave in on Greenland.
Will they? I doubt it. The Italians and Hungarians may be ready to take a Neville Chamberlain line: “There is no need for any Gucci handbag to die unsold for the sake of Greenland.”
The Scandinavians, Dutch and – significantly – the Germans are being much tougher. Britain is trying to talk Trump off the window ledge. So, it seems, is Emmanuel Macron.
But Macron is also one of the voices pushing for a decision at the emergency European summit on Thursday to activate the EU’s “big bazooka” – a so-far unused capacity to impose harsh trade penalties on any country seeking to intimidate Europe. It was created as a weapon against Russia and China; its first use may be against the United States.
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If Trump refuses to back down, there will, I believe, be a long and destructive trade war. The US will attempt to blackmail the Europeans by withdrawing its remaining support for Ukraine and by cosying up to Russia.
The Europeans could then be obliged to open a new front by dumping US treasury bonds and undermining the dollar.
Nato will be dead in all but name (but may be resurrected when the Trump nightmare is over).
Would we do all of that for a large ice-bound territory and 57,000 people “of whom we know little”?
Yes. This a 1938 moment. A powerful country – especially the most powerful country in the world – cannot be allowed to seize another country on a whim.
There will be no Europe-US military conflict this year or next. But there will be an economic war which will impose pain on both sides – more so on the Europeans.
We can win. There is likely to be a revolt against Trump in the US, either in the mid-term Congressional elections in November or possibly before that.
We are entering a time of darkness but Europe can emerge stronger if it holds its nerve.
