Syria is at significant risk of Balkanisation ,thanks to internal stresses and competing foreign interests since the collapse of the Assad government.
The term ‘Balkanisation’ refers to the breaking up of a state into smaller entities, comparable to Yugoslavia’s disintegration in the 1990s.
Syria is in danger of this fragmentation thanks to its overlapping sectarian complexities and geopolitical rivalry.
Foreign powers including Russia, Turkey, United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran are all vying for influence, adding to the tensions already within the country.
But the breaking up of Syria into smaller regions – likely to be the Sweida area with Druze next to Israel, central Syria under Damascus, coastline for the Alawites, and northeast for the Kurds – would be catastrophic for the country.
The delicate geopolitical landscape along with Syria’s diverse ethnic and sectarian groups has led to targeted violence, fuelling the movement for political regional autonomy and raising the risk of another civil war, which would result in the breaking up of the country.
Both Russian and US diplomats have raised concerns about the troubling situation in Syria, especially the threat of more violence from radical militants.
Some groups within Syria, such as the Kurdish north and east, Alawite communities and Druze populations, believe federalization with political representation within a unified framework is the answer, however critics believe this would just be a step towards Balkinisation.
Besides the state and government, businesses are one of the few things that are national in nature and help keep a country connected.
It’s extremely important both for the economy, and to prevent Balkinsation, for businesses to return to Syria. Not to mention how businesses can support Syrians as they look to the future, providing them with employment opportunities as well as rebuilding the infrastructure that is so desperately needed.
Although business alone cannot resolve political fragmentation, economic collaboration encourages the alignment of interests and reduces cause for division. By participating in multi-stakeholder conversations, businesses can play a constructive role in preventing isolated economic territories.
Much of the track two diplomacy during the war was done by Syrian businessmen showing that they’re already invested in a new future. They have the advantage of understanding the cultural landscape and now sanctions are being eased the new government needs to do all it can to encourage the return of those businessmen and international investors.
The government also needs to draw up clear investment policies and streamline their processes making it easier for businesses to return and thrive. Offering incentives to investors as well as strengthening legal frameworks and policies will boost confidence among the business community.
Businesses need to focus on reviving an economy that supports social cohesion, supporting local enterprise and engaging with communities as well as building institutional confidence. Combined with inclusive governance and international support, it’s possible to prevent fragmentation.
