Switzerland now expects a much smaller federal deficit in 2025, reported RTS. The shortfall should be about CHF 200 million, versus the CHF 800 million pencilled into the budget. Bern says the improvement does not alter its savings programme. The better than expected result driven by a windfall rather than a trend.
The upgrade stems mainly from stronger tax receipts, above all direct federal tax. Because takings exceeded expectations last year, forecast revenues for 2025 have been raised by CHF 1.5 billion. Profit tax is buoyed by extra payments for 2022–23 from Geneva-based energy and commodity traders; roughly CHF 900 million is expected in 2025. The government calls this unique and temporary. VAT, by contrast, is set to yield CHF 200 million less.
Spending and the debt brake
Ordinary spending is projected to rise by CHF 200 million, largely owing to in-year supplementary credits—including CHF 666 million for Switzerland’s participation in the EU’s research framework, which includes Horizon Europe. For the first time since the debt brake was introduced in 2003, ordinary spending could exceed the budgeted amount. Even so, the ordinary budget is now seen posting a financing surplus of CHF 700 million rather than a 500 million deficit—a swing of 1.2 billion.
No let-up on cuts
Despite the better figures, the finance ministry will press ahead with its consolidation plan. Without the Budget Relief Programme 27, it warns, multibillion-franc deficits loom in the financial plan going forward.
Extraordinary items
The extraordinary budget has worsened because of a one-off CHF 850 million transfer to stabilise the federal railways (SBB/CFF). Extraordinary revenues should exceed plan by about CHF 200 million, helped by an additional profit distribution from the Swiss National Bank.
No Trump effect expected in 2025
Bern expects no marked hit to federal finances this year from America’s 39% tariffs on Swiss goods, says the Federal Council. What happens next is harder to gauge. The impact in 2026 will hinge on how firms respond—affecting outlays on short-time work schemes and VAT takings in particular. Lagged effects on medium-term federal revenues are also likely.
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