The data on salary forecasts was collected before the United States imposed new customs duties of 39% on Swiss imports, the KOF says.
Keystone-SDA
Swiss companies’ expectations for salary growth are down by 0.3 percentage points compared to a year ago. These are the findings of the latest salary survey conducted by the Center for Economic Research (KOF) at the federal technology institute ETH Zurich. The survey was conducted with around 4,500 firms.
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Experts say that companies are expecting an average wage growth of 1.3% in 2026. After deducting the 0.5% rise in inflation expected by the KOF, employees would therefore benefit from a real salary increase of around 0.8%, the research centre told the Keystone-SDA news agency on Sunday, confirming an article in the NZZ am Sonntag.
Compared to last year’s salary survey, companies’ expectations for salary growth are down by 0.3 percentage points. According to the KOF, this is due to a lower shortage of skilled labour and a sharp fall in inflation in recent months. Over the past three years, companies’ forecasts for nominal wage growth have therefore fallen steadily.
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US tariffs not taken into account
The data was collected before the United States imposed new customs duties of 39% on Swiss imports, the KOF points out. “It is precisely in industrial companies with a strong orientation towards the United States that the customs duties are likely to reduce wage-growth forecasts”, says the research centre.
+ What do 39% US tariffs mean for the Swiss economy?
The construction sector is faring better, with an expected rise of 1.7%. Hotel and restaurant companies are also expecting a relatively high wage growth of 1.5%. The weakest improvements are expected in wholesaling (0.9%), manufacturing and the retail trade (1.1%).
Since 2022, the KOF has been surveying the wage expectations of private sector companies on a quarterly basis.
Translated from French with DeepL/gw
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